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The rift between the Globalist & Nativist wings of the Republican Party is interesting to watch. "A party is a political organ of a class" -Marx. Now the 2 classes who shared the GOP as an organ are at odds over free trade and globalization. Let's see how/if they resolve this. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1024236805477097472
I have often said here on the TL and in my writing that Globalization is replacing capitalism vs socialism as the key fault line in domestic western politics. In many ways, every major political party in North America and Western Europe is 2 parties in 1: 1 Globalist, 1 Nativist.
In France, which has Runoffs, Macron and LePen were able to poach the Globalists and Nativists respectively from both major parties, & form pure parties/movements. Duverger's Law stops this from happening in the USA, which has First Past The Post elections.
(Digression: Duverger's Law states that systems with plurality first past the post tend to lead to 2 dominant parties (like USA), while systems with multiple rounds and majority requirements tend to allow +2 parties (France).
Tea Party, Breitbart etc are the Nativist wing of GOP. Mostly rural, in counties not connected well to the globe. The money wing of the party, who profit well from globalization, dominated them, until this internet thing brought better crowdfunding and media gatekeeper bypassing.
Dems have a Nativist wing too, but up until recently, Globalists have led this party too. Obama and both Clintons are Globalists. In fact, from Bush Sr onwards, every US President has been more Globalist than Nativist. Until Trump.
The 2010 Tea Party midterm & 2016 Trump wins have put Nativist Republicans in charge of the House, White House & GOP itself. Globalist Republican donors are upset, & are flirting with Democrat Globalists.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/business-democrats-trump-745479
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/business-democrats-trump-745479
Notice that he keeps talking about "the middle". It's not just the political centre in terms of "between conservatism and liberalism". Something newer (but not new) is being discussed.
"The Middle", to the mind of the Globalist ersthwhile Republican donor, are those politicians on either side of the aisle willing to forget the Left/Right axis when Globalization & Free Trade issues come up, and meet on the "Up" pole. The political spectrum has 4 sides, not 2.
Basically both sides of the GOP Big Tent are mooting a trial separation. The Nativist grassroots bet they can crowdfund and tweet their way to victory, without Koch money & media buys. Big Business wagers it can push its biggest agenda, free trade, by funding dem globalists.
From a poli sci angle, the big question now is, will the Globalist/Koch money & media power ever be big enough to guarantee victory better than Left/Right structures, leading politicians in upper left & upper right, to flock to an Up Party? This has happened before...
Before the Civil War, USA's 2 parties were the Democrats & the... Whigs. The parties differed on questions of big govt, agrarian vs industrial economy, & institutional vs majoritarian democracy. And then the question of emancipation of slaves came up...
The democrats were mostly southern & agrarian, so generally took a quick pro-slavery position. Whigs were divided, and leadership refused to see slavery as a critical issue. 2 new poles had emerged, but Whigs didn't notice.
Suddenly, the abolitionist minority of Democrats & the abolitionist wing of the Whigs were more on the same page eith each other than their parties on this key issue. They pulled out & formed the GOP. Too many Whigs left, and the party died.
Back to today/tomorrow. Questions: will 1 party A choose a single side S of the Globalist/Nativist pole quicker than the other party B? If so, will the members of B who prefer S flock to A? If so, will a slowness from B to react lead to a party C coming up to take all anti-Ss?
Personal opinion: Nativism is likelier to capture a U.S. party than Globalism because the Nativist public in rural red counties see the Up/Down more as a critical axis than the Globalists in urban blue. Pain & anger are also big rallying tools.
If the rural coal country Nativists can get enough money and media grip to keep winning elections, they will eventually isolate America sufficiently to do economic damage, and the public will finally let the Globalists, forced together in reaction, take the wheel.
If, OTOH, nativists can't finance themselves, K Street & Main Street will hedge their bets. Politicians will come forward with two rival globalist agendas: full deregulated globalism vs a flavour with, if not protection, more safety nets and retraining for the global workforce.
This is what should have happened 20 years ago, but Western Globalist politicians on both sides were inattentive to the social effects of free trade, exodus of factory jobs, & the boom in immigration. They thought since both sides agreed, voters would have no choice. WRONG.
When this nativist wave ebbs, expect a kinder, gentler globalism. Expect outshoring taxes being used to fund adult retraining programs for jobs in service sector & renewable energy. Question is: how much damage will nativism have done to the New World Order in the meantime? END.
