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Something to keep an eye on is how the #Iran-linked attack on Saudi oil facilities could lead to major changes not inside Iran or toward Iran, but in #Riyadh’s regional posture/approach and relations to its rivals/allies.
Watch this space.
Something to keep an eye on is how the #Iran-linked attack on Saudi oil facilities could lead to major changes not inside Iran or toward Iran, but in #Riyadh’s regional posture/approach and relations to its rivals/allies.
Watch this space.
The attack could be a trigger for a change in a way previous events were not.
How?
There has been a combination of factors at play during this latest crisis, all pointing to a new reality facing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Let’s see, but will love to hear your thoughts on it:
How?
There has been a combination of factors at play during this latest crisis, all pointing to a new reality facing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Let’s see, but will love to hear your thoughts on it:
First of all, Iran’s unprecedented attack on Saudi oil facilities departs from Tehran’s old way of doing things in the region. As @ImaraWaTijara explains here https://talisman-gate.com/2018/08/31/stations-along-the-rim/, a more aggressive/assertive faction/person is taking the lead in handing Iran's regional affairs
This new Iran escalation shows it can still up the game & use its many tools, exactly at a time when Saudi Arabia has run out of escalation tools. What more could Saudi do in Yemen? It has no presence in Syria, the only place it could potentially do anything about Iran! Etc etc.
Now, Saudi Arabia has always relied on coalition-building in response to every challenge it faced in recent decades, from the Saddam invasion of Kuwait to the Houthi seize of Sana’a. That’s NOT possible today, and its closest allies are even shifting to other priorities ATM.
So Saudi Arabia is left with no tools -- almost not a single option for hitting back at Iran. Unless you want to count the increasing sanctions by the US, which had in large part led Iran to lash out to begin with.
Iran is anxious & lashing out, and will continue to try to escalate or respond to what it sees as a raging economic war against it.
Domestically, and most importantly, Saudi Arabia cannot afford to stay silent every time, but it really has no choice but to.
Domestically, and most importantly, Saudi Arabia cannot afford to stay silent every time, but it really has no choice but to.
MBS promised to take the fight inside Iran in 2017; Iran brought it to him in 2019. Iran has the ability to do more, Saudi has reached its limits.
That's not to mention all the trends in the US as relevant to Riyadh, the UAE’s recent U-turn, and the absence of Saudi old guards.
That's not to mention all the trends in the US as relevant to Riyadh, the UAE’s recent U-turn, and the absence of Saudi old guards.
Things are gonna get worse, not better, for Riyadh. Same for Iran, except in terms of its belligerence. Regional countries close to both Tehran & Riyadh are getting closer to Iran and/or alienated by Saudi (Turkey, Qatar etc.; and Egypt is, forget it).
Only realistic/reasonable scenario for Riyadh is to start stepping down the escalatory ladder. It’ll try to calm things down with Iran, and not to have to deal with escalation & further domestic embarrassment.
So, yes, Riyadh will try to make sure the attack is not to occur again. Rather than deterring Iran, though, it'll probably try to prevent Iran from needing to go that route. Riyadh has already realized its approach backfired, but the domestic costs are now much higher.
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The analogy we should think of is Turkey's shooting down of a Russian jet in 2015. The pilot was killed. We expected escalation & continued conflict, but the two started to work together in a way that dramatically changed the course of the Syrian conflict. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581
Plugging this thread from September—
#Iran-linked attack on the #Saudi oil facility in September led not to retaliation or escalation but to a policy rethink in #Riyadh. https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1174809497656864768?s=21
#Iran-linked attack on the #Saudi oil facility in September led not to retaliation or escalation but to a policy rethink in #Riyadh. https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1174809497656864768?s=21
The latest gestures include the Yemen agreement, and new hints to resolving the Gulf crisis (the latter has been confirmed by the UAE, not denied as usual.)
Very important — well-informed Emirati academic reveals:
“Good news: significant developments to resolve the Gulf dispute, sooner than you expect.”
Scroll up
“Good news: significant developments to resolve the Gulf dispute, sooner than you expect.”
Scroll up
Add to these developments the rare high-level meeting between the Saudis and Omanis, shortly after Oman called for regional negotiations with Iran. #Yemen
All as protests take place in Iraq & Lebanon, and economic pressure increases on Iran & its allies in Syria/Iraq/Lebanon.
All as protests take place in Iraq & Lebanon, and economic pressure increases on Iran & its allies in Syria/Iraq/Lebanon.
More intriguing than these changes in Saudi Arabia is why now and why simultaneously in Yemen & Qatar, and beyond.
Scroll through these 2 essential information-based threads that might explain it all..
From July: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1156590948580823040
From September: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1174809497656864768
Scroll through these 2 essential information-based threads that might explain it all..
From July: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1156590948580823040
From September: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1174809497656864768
The thread from July explains the shift in Saudi Arabia (and the UAE) after Congress's bill on Yemen; when they internalized the catastrophic perception problem in the West.
The thread from Sept. explains the Saudis' domestic dilemma & an increasingly 'aggressive' Iran.
The thread from Sept. explains the Saudis' domestic dilemma & an increasingly 'aggressive' Iran.
Some will always dismiss this but it’s true: the UAE’s departure from Yemen also led Saudi to think of doing what works for it, unilaterally. The two allies diverged, failed & compromised even if that didn’t lead to a breakdown in their relationship. https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1156594696153632768?s=21
This pattern, and its results, has been predicted almost to the letter 
“Saudi Arabia is seeking to ease tensions with Iran amid concerns about the risks conflict poses to its economy” https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-to-ease-tensions-with-iran-11576178194 via @WSJ
“Saudi Arabia is seeking to ease tensions with Iran amid concerns about the risks conflict poses to its economy” https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-to-ease-tensions-with-iran-11576178194 via @WSJ
