New paper out by @flusterbird and @Pool_Depth1_1: how to design a Coal Elimination Treaty and side-step global political deadlocks around climate change.
Why do I digest it into a thread? Bc you
are part of the process & need that info! (civil society)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811620300057#!
Why do I digest it into a thread? Bc you

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811620300057#!


1. Identify a sector responsible for a large chunk of emissions, other negative effects, and relatively simple to phase out (compared to the rest) -> Coal
40% of global CO2 emissions, 600 000 premature deaths each year. Uses: electricity, heating (also domestic), steel industry
40% of global CO2 emissions, 600 000 premature deaths each year. Uses: electricity, heating (also domestic), steel industry
"A 2016 Climate Analytics study estimated that when coal-fired power plants in operation, under construction or planned are added together, they will produce an emissions overshoot of the 1.5°C guardrail of astonishing magnitude—317% of the Paris budget"



2. Identify states that are ready to get rid of it quickly -> climate-vulnerable states, high-ambition states, states that already use little of it.
Is your country in this potential list?



France
definitely is!
Is your country in this potential list?



France

"we imagine that initial pressure & momentum towards a CET would come from an alliance btw civil society & climate-vulnerable & high-ambition states. If the ‘High Ambition alliance’ built by Chile is used as a guide, there are at least 70 states who may vote for a coal treaty"

3. They come together
and sign a Coal Elimination Treaty. 
Possible models:
nuclear non-proliferation treaties,
World Health Organization treaty like those used to fight tobacco...


Possible models:


"This staged process—which first stigmatizes a substance normatively, prohibits it through treaty adoption, and proceeds through treaty implementation towards its elimination—is exactly that which can be pursued in regard to coal."
4. Other countries can join in their own time. The key here is that the treaty allows the motivated states to start acting right away in a coordinated way without being blocked by a veto from
fossil-states
.


"In other words, the failure of the Paris Agreement to create consensus on coordinated efforts to reduce emissions should not signal a pessimistic future where all action remains impossible, but rather give clues as to how to approach international deadlock more successfully."

5. This gives momentum to the phasing out of coal. Even without the biggest coal states, the treaty is a threat to the industry: it provides incentive for divestment
Importantly, it stigmatizes a substance *normatively*. War, crimes against humanity, trafficking, COAL... = BAD.

"this proposal shouldn't be dismissed bc it may initially lack the participat° of the key stakeholders & actors; its value lies in the ability to place profound pressure upon them to initiate a coal transit°, while reflecting the will of a significant proport° of global society"
6. What should u do with this information?
Well, as you noticed, there's strong potential for civil society to put pressure on their governments to join such a treaty. Promote the concept, keep an eye on its development, and be ready to push when it starts getting traction

Well, as you noticed, there's strong potential for civil society to put pressure on their governments to join such a treaty. Promote the concept, keep an eye on its development, and be ready to push when it starts getting traction



As usual, there's an awful lot to do, but there's actual ground for optimism 
regarding coal, so let's get energized by that!
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