Read on Twitter
I am going to use Twitter as a diary of sorts to explain what happened with our presidential election forecast (and why) on most days between now and November 3rd.
A thread: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
A thread: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 11: The chance of a Biden victory increased from 83 to 85%. Most of this was caused by a Biden+13 & Biden+8 poll nationally (both weighted by past vote), and a D+3 poll in FL.
Trump’s approval ratings also decreased today, dragging down our prior. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Trump’s approval ratings also decreased today, dragging down our prior. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 12: Not much movement in the forecast. The topline probability is the same. Biden’s polling margin shifted up 0.1 in FL, AZ, and GA.
The polling average in OH went from blue to red, but the e-day forecast is still red. Worst numbers for Trump yet. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
The polling average in OH went from blue to red, but the e-day forecast is still red. Worst numbers for Trump yet. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 15: Multiple polls showing Biden up 9 nationally and one showing him down 1 in Iowa nudged the forecast a bit his way. But overall, things haven’t changed that much over the last couple of weeks. State polls have been showing Biden up big for months. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 16: Lots of polls with Biden up nearly 10 points in swing states today. Combined with yet another dip in Trump's approval ratings, the forecast moved ever so slightly toward the Democrat today. A new Civiqs poll pushed AZ to the left of NC (where it belongs, IMO).
June 17: A batch of state-level Change Research polls may have thrown the model for a bone today were it not for several national polls that were clearly good for Biden. The fallout from the unrest continues to push down Trump's chances of re-election. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 18: Trump is in a preeetty bad position if we’re arguing over which of the polls showing him down 8, 9, or 12 points is right. FWIW state polls have show a slightly closer race that has hovered around Biden +8 for a while now. Keep an eye on the gap. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 19: A Trump +3 poll in NC did little to shake things up.
Biden's current polling margin in...
SC: -8.1
AK: -5.6
TX: -3.3
IA: -2.6
GA: -0.5
OH: 0.4
NC: 1.1
AZ: 2.9
FL: 4.6
PA: 4.9
WI: 5.4
NH: 5.7
NV: 6.9
MI: 7.0
MN: 8.3
National: 8.6 https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Biden's current polling margin in...
SC: -8.1
AK: -5.6
TX: -3.3
IA: -2.6
GA: -0.5
OH: 0.4
NC: 1.1
AZ: 2.9
FL: 4.6
PA: 4.9
WI: 5.4
NH: 5.7
NV: 6.9
MI: 7.0
MN: 8.3
National: 8.6 https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 22: We're flying blind over the last week w/o new national polls, so new data in Midwestern states will exert a larger-than-typical sway over the forecast. A Biden +1 poll in MI (probably too low) has pushed Biden down by <1% in WI, OH, PA, for ex. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 23: No huge changes today. We got two new TX & USA PPP polls that showed a similar race to their last polls.
A friend said the other day that it would be fun if I could be more “emo” w these entries, but sometimes there’s just nothing to report! https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
A friend said the other day that it would be fun if I could be more “emo” w these entries, but sometimes there’s just nothing to report! https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 24: The new Biden +14 NYT poll is definitely on the higher end of what we've seen, didn't move the model much. Polling in Wisconsin pushed Biden up a bit there, but the average in the state is still around +6-7 (consistent with 8-9 nationally). https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 25: Today was probably one of Trump’s worst days in the polls. We got a load of surveys that showed him down ~7-8 points in the swing states & 8-9 nationally. It’s going to take a lot for him to win in Nov. That’s not impossible but it is improbable. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 26: It’s starting to look like the Midwest has shifted left relative to the nation as a whole, with changes in polling numbers outpacing national shifts in states such as MI and WI. That’s a partial explanation for Biden’s improved odds this week. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
June 29: Some new polls have pushed Trump underwater in GA & OH. I don't think he'll win them, but this is yet another sign of the president's steep uphill climb to re-election. He could still pull off an upset... but his odds are 2-3x worse than in 2016. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/georgia
(To clarify: I meant I don’t think BIDEN will win GA and OH — our model currently thinks the race will tighten before November and Trump will regain his footing there. But it could go either way! Both are tossups! A Trump win is just the most likely outcome, not the only one...)
June 30: Some movement to Biden from new Pew and Suffolk polls today. Updated Biden margin in our polling averages:
MO: -8
SC: -7
AK: -5
TX: -3
IA: -2
GA: 0
OH: 1
NC: 2
AZ: 3
FL: 5
PA: 6
WI: 6
NH: 6
NV: 7
MI: 8
MN: 10
ME: 12
National: +9 https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
MO: -8
SC: -7
AK: -5
TX: -3
IA: -2
GA: 0
OH: 1
NC: 2
AZ: 3
FL: 5
PA: 6
WI: 6
NH: 6
NV: 7
MI: 8
MN: 10
ME: 12
National: +9 https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
July 1: At this point it's getting hard to imagine Trump winning—IF our data is right. But even though our model simulates a 12pt interval around today's polls (in margin), it's still at 91% Biden today & entering pretty uncomfortably confident territory. https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
I think it's a good model so I'm standing by it... but 91% is pretty high...
