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Though #MuseBiixi may claim to have brilliantly defended the Secessionist case, the real winner of the negotiation stalemate were the Northern Somalia Unionists from Sool, Sanaag and Awdal who banked on the impossibility of a confederation along the colonial borders.
The solidarity among Reer Waqooyi only exists because an overpowering Koonfur. In the absence of the later, Waqooyi comes basically in 3 pieces Bari, Galbeed and Somaliland in the Middle. President #Tuur who fought the Isaaqiya Islamiya mvt in 1980s must be laughing in his grave.
Somaliland's political fractures can be summed up in a story of currency circulation. In the East Somali Shilling and the Dollars predominates, in the Center the Somaliland Shilling and the Dollars prevail and in the West reign the Djibouti franc and the Ethiopian Birr.
Biixi was factual in his speech (though overlooking the predominance of Northern Somalian elite in the military government from 1974 to the first half 1980s) but are past grievances enough to rally all Somalilanders if Union offers a better opportunity?
Djibouti's strategic interest in Somalia future must be outlined straightforward. Djibouti is committed to a united, strong and centralized Somalia which yields a promise of development for its people and specially those of Northern region with whom our destiny is interwoven.
By shifting from bystander to party position of the outcome of inter Somali negotiations, we must give leverage to Northerners when claiming justice for past crimes and a greater opportunity for dvt and never commit to a secession process that leads to a greater destabilization
As Karl Marx put it ''History always repeat itself twice. The first time as a tragedy and the second time as a prank call'' We must deceive ourselves with the prank call of a reality that vanished with the decolonization at a time of rapid political change in the Horn of Africa.
I never said Muse Bixii was wrong in expressing the grievances of many of his follow Reer Waqooyi but we can agree that he only talked about yesterday and the day before yesterday ... when the scope of negotiation was about the future. He made a speech for electoral purpose.
Northerners are pragmatic by character, Union was best option for them in 1960 as the secession was also the best option for them as long as warlords and religious extremists were wrecking havoc in the South. But now the dynamic is changing very rapidly. It is bargaining time!
