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1/ As much as some think Trump got taken for a ride by Kim Jong Un, Kim must also think he got taken for a ride by Trump since March 2018. In the end, from Kim's point of view, there was no "there" there. The leaks from Bolton's book only serve as further evidence for NK to
2/ assert that the U.S. was insincere and deceptive in its communication with the DPRK, much as others insist the North has been with the U.S. I think the North hates an insincere, BS policy from the U.S. more than it does a consistent, principled hardline policy. Now there is
3/ sheer chaos for Kim Jong Un: if he indeed had cardiovascular surgery in April, his health future becomes more uncertain; sister Kim Yo Jong taking on a more upfront role may be a direct consequence of that. Outwardly, Trump's reelection looks less assured than ever, and Kim
4/ may realize that post-election uncertainty and U.S. Supreme Court intervention in the election outcome, as in 2000, is possible. The divisions in the American body politic will make future U.S. foreign policy less reliable and predictable than ever for Kim. Right now, Kim is
5/ taking it out - through his sister - on President Moon, who had assured him Trump was willing to make a deal that would stick. I think Kim has no real endgame in harassment of the South, such as bilateral economic aid; he knows that's unlikely, but the DPRK needs to go through
6/ these gyrations to create internal alignment for a new national direction that cannot rely on the U.S. offsetting Chinese pressure on DPRK economic and political sovereignty with a new-found American relationship. In fact, Kim may sense that his friend, Donald, may soon
7/ withdraw several thousand U.S. troops from the ROK, which, despite NK propaganda, have maintained stability on the peninsula for decades and been a deterrent against China's propensity to compel both Koreas to align with China's interests. Now a real vacuum is opening up in
8/ Northeast Asia. So, despite North Korea's crazy behavior toward the South (including its plan to drop leaflets on the South), Kim Jong Un may realize the best option for his future - after releasing national "frustrations" - is to make clear to Moon that it is in both their
9/ interests for each Korea to work in tandem from now on. The "big boys" in the 'hood in the end will only stick it to them; so to protect themselves, there's no choice but to work together to the extent possible.
