Read on Twitter
(1/9) I hate simplistic #COVID19 framing by many journalists & others on Twitter. It’s often (transparently) designed to shock or elicit twitter applause by pointing out “bad” people doing “bad” things, and intentionally leaves gaps in data to achieve some end.
(2/9) But when prophecies fail to materialize, it helps drive the exact opposite behavior. And it’s likely to keep happening. Take Florida, for example. This tweet is spot on, in my opinion: https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/1274408907369336835?s=20
(3/9) You couldn’t read 5 Covid-19 tweets in early May without running across one (from serious blue checks) touting “Rising Cases in [pick your enemy state]!” Very few discussed the denominator, and testing was ramping up quite a bit all over starting in late April.
(4/9) So, now, when both positive cases *and* positive testing percentage are rising in several states, and the reason for concern/masks/distancing/careful public strategy is more clear—people just flat don’t trust those consulting the Sibylline books.
(5/9) Now, the (same) refrain is “just wait a couple weeks for the death rate in the SE and SW.” Well, maybe. But what happens if not? In Florida, the average age of Covid-19 has dropped significantly. So too in Arizona. I didn’t have time to look everywhere.
(6/9) In Arizona, for example, 32% of all confirmed Covid cases were 65+ years old up through May 14th. Between May 15th and June 9th, that number was about 13%. Since June 9th, it’s around 9%. This will undoubtedly drive the death rate from confirmed cases.
(7/9) Aside from patient age, pronouncements often assume static treatment protocols, which makes little sense given the pandemic’s scale and scientists’ abilities. So it’s possible that the death rate plateaus or even drops slightly in June/July, even in the “spike” areas.
(8/9) I’m quite for taking actions that mitigate the spread regardless of whether FL or AZ’s death rate is rising. Just know that every “answer” is a tradeoff. If you see me walking my dog around Chicago, I’m masked up. If for no other reason, here’s why: https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1271435979753164800?s=20
(9/9) So if people think you’re Chicken Little-ing (again)—or worse, outright lying—the distrust and noise floor rise. And it's already high. People are no more likely to wear a mask based on finger-wagging half-truths than they would be if you’d just shoot straight.
