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Excellent Thread.
I will add some extra information on listed groups operating in Afghanistan. https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1275884886839005184
I will add some extra information on listed groups operating in Afghanistan. https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1275884886839005184
HAQQANI GROUP:
HQN strength is estimated at 3,000 to 5,000 (conservative IMO)
Looks like their primary source of funding is through the broader Taliban framework, but supplemented by private doners. Also has operational control over local businesses under TB umbrella.
HQN strength is estimated at 3,000 to 5,000 (conservative IMO)
Looks like their primary source of funding is through the broader Taliban framework, but supplemented by private doners. Also has operational control over local businesses under TB umbrella.
TTP:
TTP strength is estimated within the same range as HQN. Although their financial sources are much more limited.
Most attacks attributed to the group appear to have occurred in Pakistan.
TTP strength is estimated within the same range as HQN. Although their financial sources are much more limited.
Most attacks attributed to the group appear to have occurred in Pakistan.
ISKP strength is estimated at 1,000 (much less than the UN which estimated upto 2,200)
Despite its dwindling numbers, ISKP has kept a high tempo of attacks, generally attacking soft targets with higher casualties.
This doesn't reflect the clashes between ISKP and ANDSF or TB.
Despite its dwindling numbers, ISKP has kept a high tempo of attacks, generally attacking soft targets with higher casualties.
This doesn't reflect the clashes between ISKP and ANDSF or TB.
AQ:
AQ central's activities seem to be limited to the media front in the region (with the AQIS responsible for most attacks in region).
No estimates of strengths are provided and in fact AQ central seems to be dispersed all the way from North Africa to Pakistan.
AQ central's activities seem to be limited to the media front in the region (with the AQIS responsible for most attacks in region).
No estimates of strengths are provided and in fact AQ central seems to be dispersed all the way from North Africa to Pakistan.
In the executive summary, mentions the killing of Hamza Osama bin Laden but in language couched so we still can't say definitely if Hamza died in 2019 or much earlier in 2016/2017 as claimed by anonymous intelligence officials.
Also mentions killing of Asim Umar.
Also mentions killing of Asim Umar.
Another interesting aspect is that while it mentions that TTP and HQN have ties to AQ, it makes no mention of the Taliban.
Not sure if this is a question of attribution or TB is ignored as not part of the FTO list.
Not sure if this is a question of attribution or TB is ignored as not part of the FTO list.
Islamic Jihad Union (IJU):
IJU has about 100 to 200 members. They operate under Taliban command in Afghanistan and under al-Nusra Front in Syria.
IJU has about 100 to 200 members. They operate under Taliban command in Afghanistan and under al-Nusra Front in Syria.
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
No estimates on strength. Says group has splintered with a smaller group siding with the Taliban while main group has pledged allegiance to ISIS.
No estimates on strength. Says group has splintered with a smaller group siding with the Taliban while main group has pledged allegiance to ISIS.
LeT
Again no estimates of strength. No activity shown for Afghanistan. Attacks are largely J&K.
Again no estimates of strength. No activity shown for Afghanistan. Attacks are largely J&K.
JeM:
Again, no estimates of strength and no activities attributed to group in Afghanistan.
Again, no estimates of strength and no activities attributed to group in Afghanistan.
Lashkar e Jhangvi:
Similar to its sister organisations, no attacks in Afghanistan claimed.
Strength estimated in the low hundreds.
This group has a more sectarian bent largely targeting Shia sects in Pakistan.
Similar to its sister organisations, no attacks in Afghanistan claimed.
Strength estimated in the low hundreds.
This group has a more sectarian bent largely targeting Shia sects in Pakistan.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Estimates of foreign groups in AFG are much more conservative than other sources - especially government-linked sources.
More cautious in endorsing AQ-Taliban nexus and makes no mention of ISKP-HQN links.
Report is very critical of Iran and related groups.
Estimates of foreign groups in AFG are much more conservative than other sources - especially government-linked sources.
More cautious in endorsing AQ-Taliban nexus and makes no mention of ISKP-HQN links.
Report is very critical of Iran and related groups.
I will add this thread as it covers many overlapping issues as my threads. https://twitter.com/asfandyarmir/status/1275897498985328641
