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Today @Arnold_Ventures is releasing a new report by @UMSL_CCJ's Richard Rosenfeld and I on #violence and #COVID19. Links and takeaways below.
First the links. You can find the report here: https://craftmediabucket.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/COVID-19-Homicide_061520_Final.pdf
And our interview about the report here: https://www.arnoldventures.org/stories/covid-19-and-crime-how-responses-to-the-pandemic-affected-homicide-rates
Now the takeaways. First, as you might expect, homicide rates declined substantially (-21.5%) in April as compared to the previous 3-year average. We believe (but cannot prove) this decline was associated with social distancing measures that peaked during that same period.
Second, also as expected, that decline waned in May (-9.9%) at the same time those same social distancing measures were being pulled back.
Third, what we did NOT expect (and cannot yet explain) is that there was a large increase in homicide in the first quarter of the year. So large, in fact, that even with the declines in April and May, homicides were up 6.0% year to date. (May is the last month of data we had)
Fourth, both Rick and I are concerned that homicides will continue to climb this summer and maybe beyond. Predicting the future is risky business, but here is our thinking:
Homicide rates typically spike during the summer. We account for seasonality in the study, but it's worth mentioning out loud here. Also, if social distancing measures to continue to ease, more people will be out and about, increasing the opportunities for violent encounters
#COVID19 has put everybody under tremendous pressure - physically, mentally, emotionally, financially. The "strain" theory posits that such pressures can increase the likelihood of criminal offending. We've also seen research showing spikes in DV: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3600646
The pandemic has also exhausted the public resources we depend on to save lives and prevent violence - hospitals, police, and community-based street outreach workers, just to name a few. Then add to this the impending budget cuts due to the economic slowdown.
As I write in my book #BleedingOut, effective violence reductions depends on relentless outreach to the highest-risk people and places. That outreach is more complicated and more dangerous now due to #COVID19. If we don't engage shooters, it's likely they'll do more shooting.
Finally, we know that police violence can trigger community violence. After #Ferguson, homicides spiked nationally. Rick and I are worried that the same thing will happen after #Minneapolis.
I want to add an important note here: we do NOT believe that protests or criticism or even calls to defund law enforcement are responsible for spikes in violent crime. DO NOT LET ANYONE MISINTERPRET OUR FINDINGS IN THIS WAY.
We believe that police violence destroys community confidence in law enforcement. When that confidence is lost, some people (not all) will refuse to report crime, offer information, or most importantly, use the police for nonviolent dispute resolution.
Multiple studies show that low levels of confidence are associated with higher levels of violence. And that's what we're worried about.
A note about police walkouts or slowdowns. Yes, when police suddenly stop policing, violence does appear to rise - we saw that in Ferguson, Chicago, and Baltimore. But when reductions in police activity are planned and happen carefully, crime may not be impacted at all, e.g. NYC.
So the bottom line is this: if violence starts to spike, we must be ready to respond. And we'll need to respond even as we continue to push for real reform in criminal justice and policing in particular. We can, and we should, fight crime and pursue justice at the same time.
Police must be part of the response to violent crime. But only part of it. We'll need outreach workers, social service providers and others to step up as well. It's not either/or, it's both/and.
