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Short thread on the near future.
Roughly speaking, we hit nadir in case growth on June 10, positive rate on June 14, and hospitalizations on June 21. With seemingly no major measures to slow this down we will achieve a new peak in hospitalization on or around July 22. 1/5
Roughly speaking, we hit nadir in case growth on June 10, positive rate on June 14, and hospitalizations on June 21. With seemingly no major measures to slow this down we will achieve a new peak in hospitalization on or around July 22. 1/5
Deaths are in the process of plateau & will likely begin ascent next week. 4-5K deaths per week will follow and then increase. 2/4
That ship has sailed: The infections that will lead to those hospitalizations & deaths have already happened or are imminent. Since there have been no major policy shifts over the last few weeks, we will only see things worsen through much of July. 3/5
But we STILL can make things better for August & beyond. We need to find the will to test MUCH more; to make masks widespread and NON-political, and social distancing more rigorous. We will also benefit from better treatment, but that will not be enough. 4/5
POTUS has no capacity for leadership: we need every Governor to take the public's health seriously: to find & use as much testing capacity as can be found; & to show the public that mask wearing and social distancing are matters of grave importance. 5/5
