Read on Twitter
I truly hope that what we are seeing right now on Russia/Afghanistan leaks didn’t derail a comprehensive intelligence analysis and policy deliberation process that was still underway, potentially leading to any compromise of sources and methods to counter its politicization.
I find it nearly impossible that a final intel assessment with such explosive content wouldn’t have prompted the NSC to stand up a series of escalating interagency meetings reaching POTUS. A one-off raw intel report lacking IC vetting might instead lead to a longer investigation.
Basic questions not asked:
1) was it raw intel or a finished assessment?
2) if the latter, was there a unified IC assessment or do some agencies have differing views?
3) what was the confidence level of any assessment?
4) do we have multiple sources of intel or just one?
1) was it raw intel or a finished assessment?
2) if the latter, was there a unified IC assessment or do some agencies have differing views?
3) what was the confidence level of any assessment?
4) do we have multiple sources of intel or just one?
The NYT reports some sort of NSC meeting in March and that the admin had only recently expanded briefings and even shared with UK. That to me sounds like the end of an exhaustive IC review with some sort of conclusions - again with confidence level & unanimity unknown.
The timing of the leaks, therefore, are alarming and potentially damaging to national security. Coming right when intel is assessed and shared with our closest ally? Possibly before it can be presented to POTUS for decision making? So many questions for HPSCI/SSCI to ask.
In the end, if we have assessed with a high enough degree of confidence that Russia did this, we need to deploy a full-suite of options: designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, sanctions, expulsion for multilateral forums and more.
But what if we don’t have that confidence level and we don’t really know? Russia operates in the grey zone as do many of our adversaries. Have the leakers limited American response options that could have been pursued in a similar grey zone fashion? Is the leak a gift to Putin?
Further thought: if DOD has solid intel starting in January, wouldn’t that have been briefed to CJCS and SECDEF? Wouldn’t DOD have been pressing for WH action for months, which would have undoubtedly leaked out sooner if they had been stonewalled? The story doesn’t add up.
