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Since comparing the US to the EU regarding the development of #covid19 received quite some attention in different media some tweets from us for the proper perspectives (using our own tool https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27:black,us:red&logScale=false&perCapita=false&cutYaxis=true&cumulative=false&types=1,2,3&mappingType=date&mappingMaxDays=152&mappingStartNumber=100&mappingNumberStyle=absolute&mappingEventType=lockdown&mappingDate=2020-2-23&smoothening=undefined&description=Tool%20for%20comparison%20on%20Covid%2019%20development%20for%20countries%20and%20regions )
First, roughly this is the chart you most often see:
First, roughly this is the chart you most often see:
It is a chart with a moving average (or something like that) on the daily new cases. Having the "smooth" version hides the fact that there are huge day to day differences. So this is probably better:
The next issue is that it compares two entities with different populations. The US has some 330M inhabitants, the EU just over 440M. So comparing the absolute numbers is not "fair". Better to compare the number of cases per million people to see the impact.
As you can see, the US looks worse of in the last graph.
But it is still difficult to see how much worse because this is about the day to day situation, not the totals. So we could also compare the cumulative numbers (per million people).
But it is still difficult to see how much worse because this is about the day to day situation, not the totals. So we could also compare the cumulative numbers (per million people).
So the US has roughly over two time as many cases per capita than the EU.
Again, this is not the complete picture. Because this was about cases only. So how many people died because of Covid in those two regions? Again per capita:
Again, this is not the complete picture. Because this was about cases only. So how many people died because of Covid in those two regions? Again per capita:
So that looks a bit less grim for the US. But the curves are different. EU is slowing on number of deaths added each day, while the US shows a possible small rise again and are still at a higher level.
To add to this: Specially in ongoing situations with complex data gathering and differences in definitions it is difficult to compare countries or regions just on the daily totals.
So graphs are best used as "signals" on (differences in) trends and even that with care. #staysafe
So graphs are best used as "signals" on (differences in) trends and even that with care. #staysafe
