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Our @Zumper July U.S. rent report is in.
The results are remarkable, especially in the Bay Area.
For the first time ever SF rents are down *double digit %s* year on year (June '20 vs June '19)
SF 1BR rents
11.8%
The results are remarkable, especially in the Bay Area.
For the first time ever SF rents are down *double digit %s* year on year (June '20 vs June '19)
SF 1BR rents
11.8%
The peninsula's 1BR rents slid even further YoY:
15.1% in Mountain View
13.5% in Menlo Park
11.1% in Palo Alto
15.7% in Cupertino
15.1% in Mountain View 13.5% in Menlo Park 11.1% in Palo Alto 15.7% in Cupertino
Talk to anyone in the Bay Area.
This is real.
I took my kiddo out for a walk to the beach this weekend. We must have seen half a dozen U-Hauls.
Buildings have been reported 1/4 empty.
This is real.
I took my kiddo out for a walk to the beach this weekend. We must have seen half a dozen U-Hauls.
Buildings have been reported 1/4 empty.
Two trends have driven this, one macro-economic, one micro:
1. Enormous recession brought on by #Covid19
2. Move to remote future of work for large tech employers like FB
The Bay Area's dips are sharper than any other major metro due to the latter
1. Enormous recession brought on by #Covid19
2. Move to remote future of work for large tech employers like FB
The Bay Area's dips are sharper than any other major metro due to the latter
Does this mean that all your friends are leaving the Bay Area?
No.
But there is a big migration to more affordable and spacious neighborhoods which explains in part why e.g. Oakland (
4.5%) is up YoY, bucking the trend
No.
But there is a big migration to more affordable and spacious neighborhoods which explains in part why e.g. Oakland (
4.5%) is up YoY, bucking the trend
Here are all the 1BR & 2BR YoY price changes in the Bay Area
I've seen some other reports that claim modest YoY 0-2% drops.
Honestly, these are wrong.
Just ask anyone in the market for a new apartment right now.
Honestly, these are wrong.
Just ask anyone in the market for a new apartment right now.
Reasons why other reports are wrong:
- Insufficient listing coverage to be statistically significant
- Bias to only multifamily data can miss rent drops hidden in move-in specials
- Models that estimate rent for all current leases, not specifically 'market' rent aka vacant units
- Insufficient listing coverage to be statistically significant
- Bias to only multifamily data can miss rent drops hidden in move-in specials
- Models that estimate rent for all current leases, not specifically 'market' rent aka vacant units
. @LondonBreed what is the city's response to this? this is going to have a MASSIVE short/med-term impact.
I'm not trying to be sensationalist but it's difficult to see how the budget shortfalls in our city won't expand dramatically
I'm not trying to be sensationalist but it's difficult to see how the budget shortfalls in our city won't expand dramatically
. @kimmaicutler @sarahku @villi @scottbudman @HansenLouis @michelletandler the trends you've highlighted are accelerating
The SF rent drops do not show any sign of plateauing, whereas e.g. NYC is flat(ish).
Where is the bottom?
The SF rent drops do not show any sign of plateauing, whereas e.g. NYC is flat(ish).
Where is the bottom?
. @sarahfrier you wrote about this in mid May. I agreed with the sentiment but never thought we'd see a 12% YoY drop in SF rents.
And yet here we are. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/tech-workers-consider-escaping-silicon-valley-s-sky-high-rents?sref=z8lKtRBV
And yet here we are. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-14/tech-workers-consider-escaping-silicon-valley-s-sky-high-rents?sref=z8lKtRBV
Full July 2020 @Zumper report across the U.S. can be found here: https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/
And @CNBC did a great job digesting this data today: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/san-francisco-one-bedroom-rent-price-drops-11point8percent-in-june-zumper.html
