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Looking at Cam Newton’s season-by-season efficiency (with the help of @benbbaldwin’s @nflfastR starter script)
THREAD…
THREAD…
First off, if you don’t know what EPA is, I would recommend reading this thread ( https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1271820315614740480?s=20) or my Medium post ( https://medium.com/@tucker.boynton/what-the-hell-is-epa-c49a30a3fb72), which both explain the concept.
My first question was this: has Cam ever been a more effective passer than he was a runner?
Answer: according to EPA/play, only in 2015.
(Line on graph below is y=x)
Answer: according to EPA/play, only in 2015.
(Line on graph below is y=x)
Other points on this graph:
- dynamic rusher in 2011, his rookie season
- about equally as effective as a passer/runner in 2013 and 2018
- actually a *negative* impact passer in 2016
- dynamic rusher in 2011, his rookie season
- about equally as effective as a passer/runner in 2013 and 2018
- actually a *negative* impact passer in 2016
But designed QB runs are generally high-leverage (goal line, 4th & 1, etc.), so on a per-play basis, running a good QB should yield more expected points, no?
Let's see how Cam compares to other QBs over that span (2011-19)...
Let's see how Cam compares to other QBs over that span (2011-19)...
For the most part, QBs are more efficient throwing the ball than running it, but there are a few exceptions, one of whom is Drew Brees (interesting).
Remember - these "rushes" don't include scrambles, which are considered pass plays.
Remember - these "rushes" don't include scrambles, which are considered pass plays.
How about purely pass plays?
(Note: CPOE is a measure of QB accuracy)
Interestingly, his best season in terms of CPOE was his last full season, and his accuracy/efficiency has improved steadily since his worst year in 2016.
(Note: CPOE is a measure of QB accuracy)
Interestingly, his best season in terms of CPOE was his last full season, and his accuracy/efficiency has improved steadily since his worst year in 2016.
And here's how he stacks up against the rest of the league from 2011 to 2019...
So Cam's ceiling, even in terms of passing accuracy, is extremely high.
In 2018, his CPOE was on the same level as Roethlisberger/Ryan/Rivers/Rodgers over the 2011-19 span.
Bottom line: he hasn't put it all together consistently enough, but his high points have been elite.
In 2018, his CPOE was on the same level as Roethlisberger/Ryan/Rivers/Rodgers over the 2011-19 span.
Bottom line: he hasn't put it all together consistently enough, but his high points have been elite.
