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THREAD TIME: in @Tejseth41’s latest article, we takes a look at run gaps and how running outside of the tackles should be utilized more in the NFL: https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/07/15/the-nfls-run-gap-secret/ (1/8)
using @nflscrapR to gather the data and @benbbaldwin’s tutorial, it was found that outside runs have a significant amount more of yards per carry than runs that go inside (2/8)
looking at success rate, runs in the end gap have been consistently 6% more successful than inside runs (3/8)
using a boxplot and density ridge, we can see that end runs have the highest variance between the run gaps. this means that while most inside runs end up between -1 and 0 EPA, end runs have a higher chance of being +1 EPA (4/8)
when looking at team performances, we can see a slight correlation between teams using end runs more and having more EPA/run on all runs (end gap, tackle gap and guard gap) (5/8)
lastly, we can see that 29 of 32 teams have a better EPA when it comes to just end runs than all of their runs (end, tackle and guard gaps) (6/8)
if i’m not tweeting tomorrow it’ll be because bill bellichick has taken me to his football lair since i might have uncovered an NFL secret for him to exploit (7/8)
@geoffschwartz as on offensive lineman, do you have a theory for why runs outside of the tackles lead to more yards per carry and a higher EPA than inside runs? (8/8)
