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I was recently asked if increased testing could explain the recent increase in cases in MT.
Short answer: nope.
Long answer: nope, nope, and nope
a
Short answer: nope.
Long answer: nope, nope, and nope
a
Tests have indeed risen. From 7/1 to 7/16 C19 testing in MT has increased by ~1200 tests per day (trendline).
This average test increase should account for about 43 new cases per day (1200 new tests * average positive test rate OF 3.64%).
Instead, we're now adding an average of 85 new cases per day (7d average)
NOTE: graph below is logarithmic scale
Instead, we're now adding an average of 85 new cases per day (7d average)
NOTE: graph below is logarithmic scale
Thus, even tho testing has gone up, we're adding about twice as many new cases as we'd expect from increased testing.
But that's not all...
But that's not all...
The % positive new tests has been rising.
From @JohnsHopkinsSPH
"On 5/12/20 the @WHO advised governments that ... rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
From @JohnsHopkinsSPH
"On 5/12/20 the @WHO advised governments that ... rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
At the start of July, Montana had a ~2.75% positive C19 test rate. Now ~4.6%.
So, even though we're testing more, we're trending in the direction of insufficient testing.
I would infer that this would mean that positive cases are being added faster than test capacity.
So, even though we're testing more, we're trending in the direction of insufficient testing.
I would infer that this would mean that positive cases are being added faster than test capacity.
Important sidebar. @GovernorBullock has repeatedly said his goal is 60,000 C19 tests per month.
On 7/16/20 MT added 134 new cases.
If the pace of new cases plateaued today, we'll need to do 75,000 tests per month just to keep our C19 test positive rate AT 5%.
On 7/16/20 MT added 134 new cases.
If the pace of new cases plateaued today, we'll need to do 75,000 tests per month just to keep our C19 test positive rate AT 5%.
Lastly, hospitalizations. This is often referred to as a lagging indicator. People get sick, they may even get tested, but they typically don't seek hospital care until after day 4 ... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Hospitalizations are an indicator independent of testing. People seek care when they feel poorly, not when testing rises.
Yet, in Montana, Hospitalizations have risen dramatically over the past 4 weeks...
Overall, I think the hypothesis that more testing explains the increase in cases is incorrect.
Yes, testing is up, but this would only explain 1/2 the increase in cases.
The percent positive test rate is increasing.
And, hospitalizations are also increasing.
Yes, testing is up, but this would only explain 1/2 the increase in cases.
The percent positive test rate is increasing.
And, hospitalizations are also increasing.
Bottom line - the increase in testing in MT simply does not explain the increase in cases.
