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This week’s #GERD development at AU meeting was politically significant, as Egypt and Sudan agreed to keep negotiating despite Ethiopia beginning to fill reservoir without reaching an agreement. SU and EG had opposed that approach.
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This week’s #GERD development at AU meeting was politically significant, as Egypt and Sudan agreed to keep negotiating despite Ethiopia beginning to fill reservoir without reaching an agreement. SU and EG had opposed that approach.
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The decision to maintain talks is right move in any circumstance, as only way for parties to secure interests is via cooperation, but makes particular sense because ET only impounded small amount of water this yr, as @CrisisGroup highlighted in October (it's 4.9bcm, not 3!):
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The situation is therefore past a dangerous moment, as EG, until now, has wisely not responded to first filling by increasing diplomatic pressure and returning to UN Security Council
However, there are still obstacles to any agreement on GERD’s filling and/or operation
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However, there are still obstacles to any agreement on GERD’s filling and/or operation
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There now seems to be more talk of a piecemeal approach (as Crisis Group proposed in March), perhaps with a filling period deal, and maybe reopening Nile Basin treaty discussions.
But it’s not clear Cairo is on board: So far, SU, EG have insisted on comprehensive GERD deal
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But it’s not clear Cairo is on board: So far, SU, EG have insisted on comprehensive GERD deal
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Still, intl, and especially African, engagement, has been positive, and 3rd parties can play key long-term role by verifying hydrological data to build trust, and as conciliators over disputes. ET should set out how SU and EG reservoirs can also help mitigate dry spells.
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ET strategy to be resolute and keep building has paid off.
Now ET needs to strive to make GERD a regional success.
Long-term that means power deals and joint projects. But for now it means tactical compromises to get a GERD deal over the line.
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Now ET needs to strive to make GERD a regional success.
Long-term that means power deals and joint projects. But for now it means tactical compromises to get a GERD deal over the line.
END
