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Briefing today- BJ appears to say that rise in cases in England is a collective responsibility & people need to take the rules seriously. This isn't an issue of people not following rules, but rather rules being eased far too quickly, at high levels of community infection. 1/N
The infection rate has risen across England to 4000 cases/d, and we are having >80 deaths/day (both are greater than any country in Europe - even those reporting 2nd waves, and re-imposing restrictions). This isn't new- the ONS warned about cases plateauing on the 15th July. 2/N
In fact looking at the data from Manchester and Lancashire, it's clear that increases in cases were apparent since beginning of July- so why action is being taken at midnight with almost no notice to residents is unclear. This isn't a sudden spike, but a gradual rise over wks 3/N
The govt claims that these rises are related to households meeting and infecting each other, and have therefore only imposed restrictions on this, rather than other measures such as shutting down pubs & bars. 4/N
There are several problems with this. We control infection by breaking networks, and while households might be infecting each other inside houses, members of households will get infected through other sources. Control of community transmission needs a multi-pronged approach. 5/N
Especially given test, trace and isolate systems are not collecting adequate data, as they're not reaching enough people. We're likely not picking up many clusters of infection, hence the rise in infections we're seeing. These data aren't reliable, as they're incomplete. 6/N
It's clear that the govt has decided that a certain number of daily cases is 'tolerable', and this is essentially the entire problem with England's response to COVID-19. As long as we 'tolerate' high levels of community transmission, we will see rises in levels of infection. 7/N
At high levels of infection, the only thing keeping the virus in check would be social distancing, mask use, and aggressive test, trace and isolate. With easing of lockdown, we've reduced distancing. Mask use isn't widespread or mandatory for everyone. And TTI is in shambles. 8/N
Had we followed an elimination strategy, eased lockdown later, and slower, with aggressive mitigatory measures, the story would've been completely different. So this is not down to the public not obeying rules, but rather rules that have been eased far too early & quickly.9/N
Chris Whitty says we have to live with the virus, and we can't return to normal life. Yes- we can't when levels are so high. But countries/regions that have eliminated the virus can- as New Zealand has. Why have we given up on this? Scotland, Ireland, N. Ireland haven't. 10/N
Also, odd of BJ to repeatedly bring up following the rules, when by their own data, the govt is claiming that spread is because of households meeting up in bubbles- which they're allowed to do because of the govt easing restrictions! 11/N
Spread is occurring because people are doing what the govt tells them they can do.
And if people aren't following the rules in some settings, much of that is down to the govts constantly changing rhetoric and advice - e.g. on mask use, the utility of TTI.
11/N
And if people aren't following the rules in some settings, much of that is down to the govts constantly changing rhetoric and advice - e.g. on mask use, the utility of TTI.
11/N
And I'm tired of hearing about BAME communities not following the rules- there's no evidence for this. This is convenient race-baiting in a country, where BAME communities have been blamed for most failures of govt- whether its poor health provision, school provision or infection
