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Okay, I've been challenged to explain my VP reasoning fully, rather than just saying "Warren good, Harris bad." Fair! I've got a more complicated argument for why Warren is the clear choice that I've mostly avoided making in full, because, hey, it's Twitter.
But here it is.
But here it is.
Basically, there are three dimensions on which VP could matter - governance, politics, and the election.
Warren is the clear best pick across two of them. With regards to the election, the least important, it's a closer call, but I still think she wins by a nose.
Warren is the clear best pick across two of them. With regards to the election, the least important, it's a closer call, but I still think she wins by a nose.
On governance, the question is "Who is most likely to help Biden address the many cataclysms the US currently faces?" And here I think it's hard to argue anyone is in the same universe as Warren. She's the Democrats' most prolific, creative policy thinker.
What's more, she thinks BIG. She is famously unafraid of "big, structural" reform - and she even thinks up new structural reforms when there's a problem without a clear solution. That's exactly what we need. Other contenders simply don't have this quality.
Then, there's politics. Remember, the world doesn't end on Nov. 4. Biden will need to guide a party with major internal divisions through a harrowing period of reform and reconstruction - assuming he can end the crises in the first place.
Putting Warren on the ticket creates a big-tent White House with a representative from each of the party's two major wings. Warren is closely affiliated with the Democrats' rising left, especially compared to Harris, who has affiliated herself more with moderate incumbents.
That gives Biden more room to work when leading an ideologically diverse party. It reassures progressives their voices are being heard and their perspectives considered, EVEN IF (as I'd expect) they don't win every argument. It's classic coalition building. No one else does this.
Finally, there's the effect of the VP on the election itself. This is by far the least important consideration, because:
A. Biden is already way ahead
B. Study after study shows that VPs don't really matter to swing voters.
(So of course, it's all pundits want to talk about.)
A. Biden is already way ahead
B. Study after study shows that VPs don't really matter to swing voters.
(So of course, it's all pundits want to talk about.)
This one is a closer call. Warren and Harris poll about the same. Harris has a slight lead as a first-choice pick among black voters, but Warren has better overall favorability with those same voters. Warren does better in the Midwest, Harris in the West.
But ultimately, Warren probably has a bit of an edge here too: her popularity is focused among progressives and the young, where the most Biden-skeptical voters are. Harris tends to appeal to older and more moderate groups that already like Biden - people whose votes are secure.
There are also non-polling electoral factors, like fundraising and party enthusiasm. The evidence here is incomplete, but we can use the primary as a rough guide. In the primary, Warren was a fabulous small-donor fundraiser, and built a large and enthusiastic supporter network.
Harris, by contrast, had a very disappointing campaign, where she squandered an early surge and exited in December with about 4% support. At very least, that's an inauspicious sign that she'd be able to rally the party for the election.
Finally, I'd add, right now there's a lot of ferment in the country over police reform specifically. The left of the party, already skeptical of Biden, is very keyed into the issue. Picking a former prosecutor is high-risk: it could be interpreted as an attack on these skeptics.
And there you have it: the full case for why Warren is pretty obviously the superior VP choice.
Obviously there's room to disagree, but for the most part, arguments I've seen in the media have been a lot less structured, even slapdash. I hope Biden is being more methodical.
Obviously there's room to disagree, but for the most part, arguments I've seen in the media have been a lot less structured, even slapdash. I hope Biden is being more methodical.
