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Playbook this AM: "The politics of walking away”
THERE ARE LOTS OF POLITICAL CALCULATIONS in legislative negotiations: what to give away when, what to ask for, where to hold the meeting and what aide to bring in tow, for example.
THERE ARE LOTS OF POLITICAL CALCULATIONS in legislative negotiations: what to give away when, what to ask for, where to hold the meeting and what aide to bring in tow, for example.
PERHAPS NOTHING IS MORE TRICKY than deciding when -- and how -- to walk away.
TEN MEETINGS between Speaker NANCY PELOSI, Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN over two weeks have yielded little more than bickering and resentment.
AT JUST BEFORE 8:30 THURSDAY NIGHT, after a three-hour meeting, negotiators emerged to say they had made progress on small-bore items, but remain trillions of dollars apart on an overall package, and still had no agreement on the big items like enhanced UI and state/local funding
FOR NOW, there won’t be another Covid stimulus bill, and now both sides will have to figure out how to position themselves amid the rubble of what might be Congress’ biggest swing and miss in a decade.
BLAME WILL FLY.
PELOSI and SCHUMER are already maligning President DONALD TRUMP and Republicans for, in their explaining, not recognizing the scope of the problem. "we could see the difference in values that we bring to the table.” PELOSI said.
PELOSI and SCHUMER are already maligning President DONALD TRUMP and Republicans for, in their explaining, not recognizing the scope of the problem. "we could see the difference in values that we bring to the table.” PELOSI said.
INDEED, THE GOP NEGOTIATORS PUSHED TO pare back Democrats’ aggressive demands, shrink the programs they were seeking to put in place and generally minimize the need for government intervention.
BUT THERE WAS A MIDDLE GROUND, and therein lies the D’s own gamble: They held hostage the main components of the bill in order to try to score a big package. They only offered modest concessions.
In this case, the WH's typical hyperbole -- Dems are intransigent! -- will be largely true, and they even admit it.
Ds firmly believe they need a global deal, and thought they could hold out, and rank-and-file Rs would revolt over the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits. Maybe they still will, but it was a risky bet.
THERE WAS AREALLY EASY package here that was a bit too much for Rs, and far too little for Ds, but would’ve easily passed: PPP, direct payments, extension of enhanced UI, $105b in education funding, eviction moratorium, testing $, $200b in S/L , $10 billion for USPS and SNAP $.
INSTEAD, THE WHITE HOUSE is finalizing executive orders to try to halt evictions and student loan payments, suspend the payroll tax and extend enhanced unemployment insurance. The signing of these executive orders could come as soon as this evening.
DEMOCRATS will point to the $3 trillion bill they passed in the House in May as evidence that they were ready for the kind of legislating that the moment requires.
HERE’S THE CATCH with all of this: Congress will have another bite at this apple. Even though there’s an election in 88 DAYS, there will be a government funding fight in 54 DAYS, as well.
THE PERSONAL POLITICS HERE ARE IMPORTANT, too. MNUCHIN has gotten a few big deals with Democrats that TRUMP has signed. But he has also grated on the nerves of Republicans, who believe he’s quick to give away the farm to Dems.
MEADOWS is in the room to represent that agita among rank-and-file Republicans, and ensure MNUCHIN doesn’t do it again. It’s fair to say that TRUMP has competing interests here: If he were in a room with SCHUMER and PELOSI, we have no doubt he would cut a massive deal with them
But he is unusually afraid of losing his base -- a fear partially stoked by people like MEADOWS over the last four years.
