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A simple example of the poor analysis of the cost-benefit relationship regarding response to covid19. Check it out
This is a recent release on the mental health effects in the COVID 19 environment:
Letâs focus on suicide risk on 18-44 yr olds. To be clear this is a cohort that is not primarily on mortality risk for covid19.
This data from CDC (we will assume credible, not a small assumption) and it shows approximately 25% of 18-24 yr olds in US considered suicide over past 30 days, and that ratio is approx 16% for 24-44 yr olds.
Let us assume conservatively assume that 1% of the 16% and 25% actually go through with it, not a unreasonably aggressive assumption. There are approximately 19m 18-24 yo and 95m 24-44 yo in US, per google.
Then (19m x 0.01 x 0.25) + (95m x 0.01 x 0.16) = 47.5k + 152k = 199.5k suicides will occur for US persons aged 18-44.
So more deaths than covid deaths currently. Yes, I expect covid to kill more ultimately than 18-44 yo committing suicide - but not that many more.
Not all of those deaths are due to the COVID response, but many are and many could likely be avoided with a modified approach to return more quickly to normality.
This is just a small example of the cost of this misguided covid19 response and the impact that the new normal has on 18-44 yo.
I havenât discussed the financial impact (huge!), other mental health impact (drug abuse as well as mental illness), impacts in families (domestic and child abuse, emotional and intellectual well being of parents and children), and childhood and adolescents development, etc.
Itâs a small peice of the pie. A small price of the COST. As you can see this conservatively modeled cost of just one facet is not insignificant when we look at the âBENEFITâ of the modified reality we are now living in.
This has got to stop. The agggregate impact of this across all ages and the other costs alluded to but not modeled above are staggering and far disproportionate to the benefits here. Itâs an unfortunate thing and people have and will continue to get sick and die. It sad, but...
Take the blinders off an realize this isnât a one size fits all and that the response doesnât really change the way the at risk population should manage their own risk.
In fact, we are relying now on a vaccine that may not come soon and herd immunity through natural means may be the quickest safest and most effective means to solve this issue. See Sweden. Thank me for reading.
I mean thank you for reading lololol sorry 
