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How to create the best team—my approach.
1. Get the two players you think have the best points expectancy, irrespective of price, from different teams. Captaincy justifies disregarding price on 2 players, but you will lose expected value if you overdo the high end premiums.
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1. Get the two players you think have the best points expectancy, irrespective of price, from different teams. Captaincy justifies disregarding price on 2 players, but you will lose expected value if you overdo the high end premiums.
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2. Don’t spend more than 8.5 on GKs. Find the best 4.5 to play. GKs have the most even returns of all positions. Rarely do you get your money’s worth when you go higher. Revisit the GK spot if you find yourself with extra cash (if you must — I prob. won’t).
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2/8
3. Get the best value players at different segments below 11. Trent is obvious. Scour the 4.0-5.0m range for options (the best 4.0 is a must). This leaves money to find 1-2 semi-expensive players you’re not relying on for captaincy.
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3/8
4. Once you’ve nailed down 1. and 2., and a couple of top value players, you have lots of room to wiggle, compare player combinations, distribute cash, etc. The polishing is the hard part, but it’s more manageable with a few constants in place.
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4/8
5. Consider the first 6-8 GWs when selecting players. Fixtures are important, and this is a fine volume of fixtures to plan for, as you gain from good fixtures without forcing an early WC or hits.
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5/8
6. Don’t get players with a committed plan to remove them by GW3. We gain so much information when the PL starts again. You want your players to be fine picks, despite your finding new, better things to do.
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6/8
7. Look at xG-based stats more than (or at least as much as) you look at FPL points and goals scored/assisted/conceded. xG is the best we have for predictive purposes. Also, don’t be afraid to compare with algorithms (esp. @fplreview’s season planner) or bookie odds.
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7/8
These are key points in how I approach the task. Would never force this approach onto anyone, but hope you got something out of reading my rules/heuristics. Oh, and as always, disregard ownership.
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8/8
