Read on Twitter
1/ A #COVID19 FAQ I often get is about “herd immunity.”
Here’s a short thread with some relevant links but the punchline is this- in order for the numbers to work we’d need to accept 1.3 million U.S. citizens dead from the virus.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
Here’s a short thread with some relevant links but the punchline is this- in order for the numbers to work we’d need to accept 1.3 million U.S. citizens dead from the virus.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
2/ Heard immunity occurs when large enough percentage of us are exposed to an Infectious disease and become immune that the disease can no longer be significantly transmitted.
Most health experts think this occurs at around 70% exposure.
70% times 330 million = 230 million.
Most health experts think this occurs at around 70% exposure.
70% times 330 million = 230 million.
3/ A great @CDCMMWR from a study done in Indiana estimates the case fatality rate for #Covid19 To be around 0.58%.
230 million people needed for heard immunity times 0.58% of them who die = 1.3 million people who must die to achieve this goal. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929e1.htm?s_cid=mm6929e1_w
230 million people needed for heard immunity times 0.58% of them who die = 1.3 million people who must die to achieve this goal. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6929e1.htm?s_cid=mm6929e1_w
4/ I personally think 1.3 million dead to achieve herd immunity is not only unacceptable but unnecessary.
We can lower disease transmission significantly (NY has a positivity rate less than 1%) AND still reopen if we do three things:
Wear masks
Wash hands
Watch distance
We can lower disease transmission significantly (NY has a positivity rate less than 1%) AND still reopen if we do three things:
Wear masks
Wash hands
Watch distance
5/ How long must we put up with the inconvenience of washing our hands, wearing face masks, and avoiding crowds/keeping 6 ft between us and others?
Likely only until the beginning of 2021 when we have a safe and effective vaccine- That’s a way to safely achieve herd immunity.
Likely only until the beginning of 2021 when we have a safe and effective vaccine- That’s a way to safely achieve herd immunity.
6/6 So asking about herd immunity is a fair question, but pursuing it is not a fair option to the over 1 million additional people who would give up their lives to make this a possibility.
We can safely reopen and stop the disease in its tracks without such loss of life.
We can safely reopen and stop the disease in its tracks without such loss of life.
