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THREAD on why testing is so vital for avoiding lockdowns... (and why it is so disastrous for testing to break *just* now). And whose fault it is.
The basic principle behind reducing COVID transmission is stopping infected people mixing with uninfected people.
The basic principle behind reducing COVID transmission is stopping infected people mixing with uninfected people.
1. An excellent Test & Trace system lets you find the people most likely to be infected and ask them to isolate (new cases & their contacts). This creates minimal disruption for everyone else (but should still come with support for people to isolate because it's hard).
2. A mediocre Test & Trace system will tell you where cases are happening and how (e.g. pubs, households) but might not be enough to stop spread. Then you can close off certain spaces where spread is happening - e.g. pubs or restrict household visits
3. A barely functioning Test & Trace system tells you where cases are happening but little else. This might then lead to blanket regional lockdowns where you just stop everyone mixing because you don't know who is most likely to be infected or where they go
4. A totally broken Test & Trace system doesn't even tell you where cases are happening *now* or where next hotspots are. Then little choice but to have national restrictions to try to prevent everyone mixing. This can be closing off some spaces (e.g. household mixing)...
5. ...or extreme lockdown of everything (inc schools etc - last resort). Latter are generally effective (if people follow guidelines) but are massively damaging. 5 is where we were in March / April. We were somewhere between 2 and 3 for July / Aug and now we seem to be at 4.
Why this matters now: since 1 August testing numbers have been pretty flat. Confirmed cases took a month to double between beginning and end of August. They then doubled again in a *week* last week. Spread is accelerating. In March we were at 3-4 day doubling.
People whose results are coming through now prob got infected 7-10 days ago (5-7 days to get symptoms, 1-2 days to get a test, 1-3 days for results). So this acceleration was end August. Knowing where are now is critical but broken testing makes it almost impossible!
The govt clearly v worried about what is happening hence their latest restrictions. Make no mistake - restrictions are *not* the fault of young people or people asking for tests. The fault is with the govt who spent summer actively encouraged mixing without improving test & trace
We *should* be at stage 1 - excellent test & trace with minimal disruption to others. Instead we are escalating towards more national restrictions. None of this was unpredictable. I am furious that we have a govt unwilling or unable to learn from others or their own mistakes. END
PS social distancing, masks, handwashing etc all help too by reducing likelihood of transmission if there is mixing of infectious & uninfected - please keep doing these things!
