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“Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions”
New WB paper from @myjumens and me.
We measure how much citizen’s expectations and behavior changes following major oil and gas discoveries
Link to paper: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/796881598889032254/natural-resource-discoveries-citizen-expectations-and-household-decisions
Thread:1/5
New WB paper from @myjumens and me. We measure how much citizen’s expectations and behavior changes following major oil and gas discoveriesLink to paper: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/796881598889032254/natural-resource-discoveries-citizen-expectations-and-household-decisionsThread:1/5
Using Afrobarometer data we find discoveries trigger:
optimism about economy
optimism about own standards of living
And lead to:
fertility choices
apps to US green card lottery
Over time:
Expectations effect short-lived.
Behavior changes may have long lived effects. 2/5
optimism about economyoptimism about own standards of livingAnd lead to:
fertility choices apps to US green card lotteryOver time:
Expectations effect short-lived.
Behavior changes may have long lived effects. 2/5
The 'news shock' has big yet short-lived impacts on citizens expectations (12 months) but fertility and migration choices last.
If citizens are initially over-optimistic about the future following a major discovery, might such big life choices prove suboptimal? 3/5
If citizens are initially over-optimistic about the future following a major discovery, might such big life choices prove suboptimal? 3/5
Could this be another clue for how countries may face a 'presource curse'?
Some have had major growth disappointments and crises following big discoveries - maybe fueled by over-optimism.
See brand new working paper exploring this in Africa context:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/274381599578080257/how-africas-prospective-petroleum-producers-fell-victim-to-the-presource-curse
4/5
Some have had major growth disappointments and crises following big discoveries - maybe fueled by over-optimism.
See brand new working paper exploring this in Africa context:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/274381599578080257/how-africas-prospective-petroleum-producers-fell-victim-to-the-presource-curse
4/5
And a link back to the original presource curse article by
@LeighElston and @ZitamarNews that spotted the emerging phenomenon in Mozambique:
https://zitamar.com/mozambique-and-the-presource-curse/
And inspired our study that showed it extends far beyond Mozambique unfortunately:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/517431499697641884/evidence-for-a-presource-curse-oil-discoveries-elevated-expectations-and-growth-disappointments
5/5
@LeighElston and @ZitamarNews that spotted the emerging phenomenon in Mozambique:
https://zitamar.com/mozambique-and-the-presource-curse/
And inspired our study that showed it extends far beyond Mozambique unfortunately:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/517431499697641884/evidence-for-a-presource-curse-oil-discoveries-elevated-expectations-and-growth-disappointments
5/5
