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Week 14 NHS Test and Trace summary. 27/08/20 – 02/09/20.
Cases
43%.
Tests5%.
Test positivity rate from 1.5% to 2.3%
Increase in both pillar 1 (hospitals/outbreaks) and pillar 2 (community) test positivity.
Summary in pic, detail in thread
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-27-august-to-2-september-2020
Cases
43%.Tests
5%.Test positivity rate
from 1.5% to 2.3%Increase in both pillar 1 (hospitals/outbreaks) and pillar 2 (community) test positivity.
Summary in pic, detail in thread
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-27-august-to-2-september-2020
KEY POINTS.
Sharp increase in cases (reflecting recent http://gov.uk data)
43% this week to 9,864, compared with 8% rise last week.
Number of tests in pillar 1 and 2 both
by about 5%.
Sharp increase in cases (reflecting recent http://gov.uk data)
43% this week to 9,864, compared with 8% rise last week.Number of tests in pillar 1 and 2 both
by about 5%.
Number of cases in pillar 1 28% from 634 to 810
Number cases in pillar 245% from 6,240 to 9,050.
Means positivity for pillar 2 now 3.0% (highest since NHSTT began) compared with 2.0% the week before.
For pillar 1 it’s 0.61% up from 0.45%.
28% from 634 to 810Number cases in pillar 2
45% from 6,240 to 9,050.Means positivity for pillar 2 now 3.0% (highest since NHSTT began) compared with 2.0% the week before.
For pillar 1 it’s 0.61% up from 0.45%.
And @PHE_UK data to 30th August show increases are largely driven by 20-29y/o - but there's some interesting details in there (next PHE surveillance report is out tomorrow) https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1302608734485610499?s=20
Cases are now be climbing steeply in England – 2,578 today (10/09)
But daily updates are rapidly losing their relevance. Unless people who have symptoms are able to get a test, then the day-by-day case numbers will tell us little about how the pandemic is really progressing.
But daily updates are rapidly losing their relevance. Unless people who have symptoms are able to get a test, then the day-by-day case numbers will tell us little about how the pandemic is really progressing.
(Worth noting that the ONS survey doesn't yet show a rise in community cases up to 25th August)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales4september2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales4september2020
We’re also now beginning to signs that hospital admissions are rising, but not (yet) more deaths.
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1303719422595682306?s=20
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1303719422595682306?s=20
In general, NHSTT performance data are similar to previous weeks.
But it’s completely overshadowed by limited test availability.
It’s hard to emphasise how much this undermines targeted data-driven public health responses.
But it’s completely overshadowed by limited test availability.
It’s hard to emphasise how much this undermines targeted data-driven public health responses.
If you're unclear who is infected & how local case numbers are changing, you don’t know where to target resources, where to offer support, where to close, where to swab etc etc.
Instead you’re left with far blunter instruments like national-level social restrictions & lock down.
Instead you’re left with far blunter instruments like national-level social restrictions & lock down.
Total case numbers & test positivity rates will likely rise as limited testing resources are targeted to areas known to have high or rising case numbers.
Other areas with more limited test access may get some indication about how local case numbers are changing from P1...
Other areas with more limited test access may get some indication about how local case numbers are changing from P1...
...but if things don't get sorted, indirect signals like data on student absenteeism, care home/school staff shortages, GP calls, hosp attendances may need to be tracked & checked against how overall case numbers are looking.
And people will stop bothering to try & get tested.
And people will stop bothering to try & get tested.
It is SO SO important this is sorted quickly.
If you have symptoms, please do still try to get a test and if you can't, please isolate along with your household.
There are various local gov support lines that can help if necessary.
If you have symptoms, please do still try to get a test and if you can't, please isolate along with your household.
There are various local gov support lines that can help if necessary.
Anyway, back to NHSTT. Firstly, 8,908 people were transferred suggesting delays in cases getting on to the system from previous weeks have now filtered through the system.
Good news is 83% of these cases were reached, (same as last week as high as it’s ever been).
Good news is 83% of these cases were reached, (same as last week as high as it’s ever been).
And of those reached, 82% provided details of contacts – highest ever. As I’ve said before, this is really a good thing. NHSTT relies on people willing to provide contact details.
Number of contacts has only risen by 2% (to 32,359) because numbers of contacts per case has dropped from 5.0 to 4.4, due to small drops in both complex (24.0 to 22.0) and non-complex (3.9 to 3.6) contacts per case.
3.6 contacts per non-complex case is still pretty high for non-complex cases compared with overall NHSTT data.
Again, I think likely a reflection of more social/work place mixing taking place.
Again, I think likely a reflection of more social/work place mixing taking place.
There is also a slow downward trend in the proportion of contacts that are household contacts which may support this.
The percentage of contacts reached is the same as last week at 69%, (61% of non-complex contacts reached and 97% of complex contacts)
In terms of overall timing, things have slightly improved overall, but still really poor for satellite test kits and home test kits.
The main thing is - as ever - the need to get current testing infrastructure working. It is crucial to understanding the scale of this rise in case numbers.
In the meantime, please still try to get tested if you have symptoms.
Otherwise hand washing, masks, following social distancing guidance all still work.
It feels a bit like a rise in deaths is inevitable, but it doesn't have to be.
Otherwise hand washing, masks, following social distancing guidance all still work.
It feels a bit like a rise in deaths is inevitable, but it doesn't have to be.
wk14
@felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor
@KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @chrischirp @SamanthaJonesUK @ewanbirney
@felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor
@KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @chrischirp @SamanthaJonesUK @ewanbirney
And just to add, I know it's not that people don't want testing to work - everyone in the system wants it work. And they're trying *really* hard to make it work.
But that doesn't make its problems any less frustrating, esp just as schools go back and cases start to tick up.
But that doesn't make its problems any less frustrating, esp just as schools go back and cases start to tick up.
Typo in the top tweet of the thread, but correct in the thread.
Test numbers are DOWN 5%, not up.
Test numbers are DOWN 5%, not up.
