Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* hospitals are filling up, field hospital & overflow ER being prepped
* crisis: 266 cases/day (28.4 per 100k)
* cases -2% over 1wk, but tests -13%
* cases +134% over 4wks, tests +27%
* cases growing 5x faster than tests

1/
Let's start with hospitalization.

We are nearing the same levels as we saw this summer.

This is why hospitals are running surge drills. And why the state is preparing to open the field hospital at the old CA bldg. And why the city is prepping the Pipkin Bldg as overflow ER.

2/
This is a photo of the Pipkin Bldg, btw.

Does this look like an emergency room to you?

This looks like something from M*A*S*H. Only without Hawkeye and the gang to entertain.

3/
This would be worrying enough, just by itself, especially since the suburbs insist on holding super-spreader events without masks.

And, of course, the governor refuses to implement a mask mandate...even though the White House recommended it months ago.

4/
This would be worrying enough, just by itself, especially since the suburbs insist on holding super-spreader events without masks.And, of course, the governor refuses to implement a mask mandate...even though the White House recommended it months ago.4/
This would be worrying enough, just by itself, especially since the suburbs insist on holding super-spreader events without masks.And, of course, the governor refuses to implement a mask mandate...even though the White House recommended it months ago.4/
This would be worrying enough, just by itself, especially since the suburbs insist on holding super-spreader events without masks.And, of course, the governor refuses to implement a mask mandate...even though the White House recommended it months ago.4/
But check out the covid rates in the rural areas that surround us.

Benton, MS: >70 cases per 100k
Haywood, TN: >70
Crittendon, AR: 54
Fayette, TN: 54
Tipton, TN: 48
Marshall, MS: 46
Tate, MS: 41

These places all depend on, and are starting to fill, our hospitals.

5/
We are interconnected, whether we like it or not. The "freedom" to not wear a mask impacts others.

When hospitals fill up, that creates a dangerous situation for everyone. There may be no room for someone having a heart attack. Routine procedures may have to be canceled.

6/
Check out these stories, both from the front page, to understand where we find ourselves...

--> Cases rising before the holidays
Health officials beg public to halt virus

--> MEMPHIS IN MAY NEEDS BIG CROWDS

h/t: @sylamore1

7/
Here are daily cases since Sept1.

Cases have more than doubled since then.

8/
Here are cases/day per wk.

Sept27-Oct3: 114 cases/day
Oct4-10: 154
Oct11-17: 156
Oct18-24: 270
Oct25-31: 266

-2% over 1wk (but testing -13%)
+70%, 2wks (+29%)
+134%, 4wks (+27%)

9/
Yes, the 7-day avg for cases did slightly dip this week.

But it seems obvious that we found fewer cases bc we tested so few ppl. Testing dropped 6.5x more than cases this wk.

And cases have grown 5x faster than testing over 4wks.

Testing is - continues to be - a problem.

10/
Yes, the 7-day avg for cases did slightly dip this week.But it seems obvious that we found fewer cases bc we tested so few ppl. Testing dropped 6.5x more than cases this wk.And cases have grown 5x faster than testing over 4wks.Testing is - continues to be - a problem.10/
Yes, the 7-day avg for cases did slightly dip this week.But it seems obvious that we found fewer cases bc we tested so few ppl. Testing dropped 6.5x more than cases this wk.And cases have grown 5x faster than testing over 4wks.Testing is - continues to be - a problem.10/
The result is that we are missing cases.

Even with our high cases, there are even more out there that we don't know about yet.

In other words, spread is happening undetected.

And that's how a crisis can sneak up on you.

11/
If we zoom out, we can see that we look an awful lot like the end of June into the beginning of July.

Here's a snapshot of then and now. We're looking at equaling our July peak...before Thanksgiving.

12/
If we zoom out, we can see that we look an awful lot like the end of June into the beginning of July.Here's a snapshot of then and now. We're looking at equaling our July peak...before Thanksgiving.12/
If we zoom out, we can see that we look an awful lot like the end of June into the beginning of July.Here's a snapshot of then and now. We're looking at equaling our July peak...before Thanksgiving.12/
If we zoom out, we can see that we look an awful lot like the end of June into the beginning of July.Here's a snapshot of then and now. We're looking at equaling our July peak...before Thanksgiving.12/
According to Harvard's Global Health Institute, we've already lost control of the virus. We reached their "tipping point" a week ago.

13/
According to Harvard's Global Health Institute, we've already lost control of the virus. We reached their "tipping point" a week ago.13/
According to Harvard's Global Health Institute, we've already lost control of the virus. We reached their "tipping point" a week ago.13/
Meanwhile, positivity rates are rising...

Case positivity is up to 17.6%+, which is even higher than the highest week during the summer (17.0%, July26-Aug1).

Test positivity is up to 9.0%+, by far the highest since they started reported it 5wks ago. (It was 7.7% last wk.)

14/
Based on our current growth rate, our current avg of 266 cases/day will grow to at least 360/day (and possibly 470/day if the growth rate increases) by Thanksgiving.

We're looking at somewhere b/t 480 and 673 per day by New Year's Day.

15/
We currently stand at 37,764 total cases.

By Thanksgiving, we'll likely have at least 46,457 and possibly up to 48,914 cases.

By New Year's, b/t 61,891 and 69,985 cases.

16/
If you are reading this, esp if you are still reading, you are probably wearing a mask with fidelity. And your instinct is probably to stay at home.

But you don't have to do that.

Remember, outdoors is roughly 20x safer than indoors. It's chilly, but you need social time.

17/
Last night, my wife (the children's & youth minister) hosted our church's annual pumpkin carving event.

She moved it outside, replaced the chili cookoff with bring-your-own-dinner, and projected It's The Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown.

Big success!

18/
The weather today is wonderful. Get outside and enjoy it while you can. Take a walk, ride a bike, go to the park, invite a friend over to hang out and drink on the porch.

The sun will be out almost all week long. Soak it up.

19/
And if you haven't done so already, I implore you to go vote on Tuesday.

Don't just vote, but vote for Biden.

He's not my fave, but he's not pretending that there is no pandemic. He's not trying to kill 1,000 ppl/day.

So vote Biden to save lives.

https://twitter.com/firstresponses/status/1321603697806348288

20/
Vote Biden to save Black Lives in particular.

Shelby County is 52% African American.
But Black ppl make up 63% of local covid deaths.

Covid disproportionately impacts African Americans, so Trump's disastrous response is killing Black ppl.

He's got to go.

21/
Biden won't magically fix things.

But the one thing we know is that he will not intentionally try to kill people as a matter of public health policy by letting covid run free.

So vote Biden to save lives.

22/22
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