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Short thread on current crisis
Much government is about arse-covering. Across UK govs are panicking about NHS not coping & rising +ive tests. Locking down distracts, very expensively, from 5 key failures.
@MichaelYeadon3 @simondolan @cricketwyvern @doonhamer1963 @Alliance4Unity
Much government is about arse-covering. Across UK govs are panicking about NHS not coping & rising +ive tests. Locking down distracts, very expensively, from 5 key failures.
@MichaelYeadon3 @simondolan @cricketwyvern @doonhamer1963 @Alliance4Unity
1) For yrs hospital occupancy has been run too close to capacity. Fear of the NHS being overwhelmed led to the lockdown 1 & Nightingale Hospitals. Govs have had the summer to prepare the NHS for the predictable seasonal admissions surge. Lockdown 2 covers up ongoing NHS failure
2)Testing & tracing regimes across UK are flailing. They've failed to meet their targets or keep up with demand, incl. regular testing of those who work with the most vulnerable. Tests take too long to process & tracking is patchy. Lockdown covers up major organisational failings
3) Over-sensitive PCR test yields many false +ives. The no. of people with some immunity to C-19 unknown. So number testing +ive is misleadingly high. Also +ive test ≠ case: many asymptomatic. Overreacting to +ive tests saves govs from admitting/addressing testing problems
4) Key metrics are comparative annual mortality & ICU rates. Mortality can only be reliably measured in terms of excess death stats because many deaths are recorded as C-19, even though C-19 may only have been a minor factor, or no factor at all.
4 cont) Comparisons of weekly excess deaths & ICU admissions with past years indicate a few weeks where 2020 was higher, but many more weeks where 2020 was lower, yielding an overall trend showing 2020 deaths and ICU stats as not exceptional. Govs never highlight this key data.
5) Lockdowns don't work. Even WHO says so. They often do more harm than good, pushing the problem of infections down the road & delaying the growth of herd immunity. Coronaviruses follow a Gompertz Curve, so claimed impacts of lockdowns are based on correlation, not causation.
5cont) Lockdowns enable governments to pretend they have some control, and again deflect from their failures in the NHS, testing and tracing. They also provide a handy excuse for the inevitable economic suffering that will follow.
