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I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:
Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/ https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1322852329910116359
Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/ https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1322852329910116359
In 2016, didn’t win because he made a winning case to a big enough population.
He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
He is trying to run the exact same playbook against Biden.
But it isn’t working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
But it isn’t working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
And 4) Many people who first engaged with politics because of Bernie are now well past the “...or Bust” vibe of 2016 and are now solidly active progressive voters
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
Instead, they overestimated Trump’s strength.
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
And what is left is an electorate that will look quite changed since 2016 in ways that are all bad for Trump.
Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.
The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.
6/
Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.
The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.
6/
It not only isn’t working in 2020, it has ignited a vigilance among some who were taken in by it.
Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.
And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.
7/
Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.
And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.
7/
I am already pre-annoyed by the breathless post-election analyses of the “startling” extent of Trump’s defeat, the “unpredicted weakness” in his support.
It was always right there to see.
8/
It was always right there to see.
8/
I did the same yelling into the abyss about Bernie’s hard ceiling in the primaries while David Plouffe and the other professional talking heads were swooning over momentum that wasn’t.
It is right there to see.
9/
It is right there to see.
9/
Trump is no different than he was in 2016.
His support is no different.
It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.
It took a perfect storm in 2016.
Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.
And that was always right there to see.
But boring races don’t sell ad space.
10/10
His support is no different.
It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.
It took a perfect storm in 2016.
Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.
And that was always right there to see.
But boring races don’t sell ad space.
10/10
As I was saying...
Right. There. To. See. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1322908018187665411
Right. There. To. See. https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1322908018187665411
