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While significant focus has been dedicated—and rightly so—to surging #YouthVote turnout, not enough attention has been paid to the significance of young people coalescing around Joe Biden’s candidacy in every major poll. Some state highlights (THREAD): https://genprogress.org/young-voter-preference-is-a-significant-factor-for-2020-election-results/
Over the past few weeks, a lot has been written about the surge in the number of young people voting early in the 2020 election. There has been less written, however, about the role that young people’s changing voter preference will have on its outcome. #AZpol #YouthVote
Clinton outperformed Trump with the #YouthVote by 19 points, according to national exit polls. And since the end of the Dem primary, they have coalesced around Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, favoring him over Trump by 30-40 points according to most national polls. #FLpol
We juxtaposed the anticipated increase in #YouthVote split between Biden and Trump with the voter split of that same age group between Clinton and Trump and compared it to the overall margin of victory in those states. #GApol
For ex: Young voters (18-29) in Michigan are expected to favor Biden by 554,000 votes this election. This change represents 30(!) times the total margin of victory in 2016. #MIpol #YouthVote
In several states, including North Carolina, we found that the change in voter preference among 18- to 29-year-olds could comprise as much as 50 percent of the total margin of victory in those states. #NCpol #YouthVote
In other states, such as Pennsylvania, the shift in #YouthVote preference would result in significantly more votes for Biden than the 2016 margin of victory in those states—meaning young voters alone could determine which candidate receives the electoral votes here. #PApol
Young voters (18-29) in Texas are expected to favor Biden by 622,000 votes this election. This is 388,000 votes more than the Clinton-Trump split with the same age group in 2016. #YouthVote #TXpol
Finally, in Wisconsin, we found that the shift in #YouthVote preference would result in significantly more votes for Biden than the 2016 margin of victory in those states. Again here, young voters alone could determine which candidate receives these electoral votes. #WIpol
