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(Trying this thread again, this time without Twitter randomly reordering the entries. Hope springs eternal.)
Just a couple of thoughts to keep us Biden supporters sane on the eve of Election Day. 1/17
Just a couple of thoughts to keep us Biden supporters sane on the eve of Election Day. 1/17
First, Biden is polling at over 50% nationally, up more than 8 points on Trump. Clinton’s lead was only half that size. More important, she was only at 44% in the polls, because there were a ton of undecided voters who mostly broke late for Trump. 2/17
In contrast, Biden’s national lead is greater than the (very small) number of undecideds. 3/17
Of course, it’s a state-by-state election, not a national one. But Biden is ahead in many more states than he needs. 538 gives him a greater chance of winning Iowa, Texas, or Ohio than Trump has of winning North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, or Arizona. 4/17
And Biden does not need any of those seven states to win. He’s playing with house money. 5/17
The state most likely to get Biden to victory is Pennsylvania. It’s close—Biden’s up by 2+ points—but Trump has not led in single decent poll there since February. 6/17
That’s a microcosm of all the polls: you have to into solid red-state territory before you see a steady Trump lead, whereas Biden’s swing-state leads have been consistent. 7/17
Second, prepare yourself not to know the result tomorrow night, especially in Pennsylvania. But keep an eye on Florida and North Carolina, which should be called on Election Night unless they are recount-level close. If Biden wins either, Trump has basically no shot. 8/17
Arizona and Georgia might also be called early, with similar implications. And even if Trump ekes out a tiny margin in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, or Georgia, that probably means the modeling is accurate enough to give Biden a good shot in later-called states. 9/17
All in all, 538’s final model gives Trump a 10% chance of victory. That’s way worse than in 2016, when it was a 29-30% chance. In other words, in 2016 we should have been no more surprised that Trump won than we would have been if Mickey Mantle came to bat and got a hit. 10/17
In contrast, this year Trump’s odds are more like me coming to bat and getting a hit, and I suck at baseball. (This analogy is for my Yankees-loving mom. Apologies to those who don’t understand sports analogies. You’ll be on deck as soon as I move the goalposts.) 11/17
Of course, this is all based on polls and modeling, and those folks admittedly got stuff wrong in 2016. But there is more polling—and methodologically better polling—now than there was then. 12/17
tl;dr version of potential modeling problems: Even if the current polls are underestimating Trump support by as much as they did in 2016, Biden still wins handily. 13/17
Yes, Trump will try to mess with the results, prevent votes from being counted, etc. Biden has known this for a long time. Attorneys are ready and have the law on their side. The cases so far have mostly gone well for the Democrats. 14/17
Voter intimidation on Election Day is a real possibility, but Democrats have voted in huge numbers already. Although Republicans have been devoted to making it hard to vote, difficulties in voting on Election Day might ironically impede more Republicans than Democrats. 15/17
Nothing is certain. There are refinements and rebuttals to much of what I’ve said. Early voting in Florida is a little weird. Nevada has not been polled as much as I’d like. Frogs, locusts, boils. Aliens might invade and make us all speak in nothing but baseball analogies. 16/17
But take a deep breath. There are always reasons to worry. Tonight, however, there are more reasons not to worry. Focus on them, go to your happy place, and get some sleep. 17/17
