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No idea what will happen with #ElectionDay 
, but here's my best guess:
Early results will favour Trump, because 93m people have voted by postal ballot, and they're not all counted same day.
Republicans are more likely to risk in-person voting than Democrats. So...
, but here's my best guess:Early results will favour Trump, because 93m people have voted by postal ballot, and they're not all counted same day.
Republicans are more likely to risk in-person voting than Democrats. So...
So the votes cast today will appear to favour Trump, and that means the first sets of results that come in will scare you.
But all the networks will call the election for Biden (possible exceptions: Fox, Drudge and "The Aliens Are Coming, The Aliens Are Coming" Network)
But all the networks will call the election for Biden (possible exceptions: Fox, Drudge and "The Aliens Are Coming, The Aliens Are Coming" Network)
Why will they call it for Biden? Cos he's roughly 5x further ahead than Hillary Clinton was. Of the 17 swing states Trump needs to win all of, he's ahead in 3.
Even if the polls are out as much as 2016, Biden will still win 12 of them. He's won.
But that means little...
Even if the polls are out as much as 2016, Biden will still win 12 of them. He's won.
But that means little...
Trump is shameless and doesn't believe in democracy at all. If you're still arguing about that, you're an idiot.
I suspect because early votes will indicate a good result for him, he'll try to force those 93m postal votes (which are counted later) to be nullified...
I suspect because early votes will indicate a good result for him, he'll try to force those 93m postal votes (which are counted later) to be nullified...
He's got the seats in the Supreme Court and an army of lawyers to argue this. He's built a literal unscalable wall around the White House, and he's likely to sit in there and fight to have 93m votes cast aside.
What might happen if he tries this?
What might happen if he tries this?
Phew. Now we're into the realms of wild stabs in the dark. Or, being America, random shootings.
I'd guess a substantial number of Republican politicians will tell him the game is up, but probably more of them won't. Giuliani, I'm looking at you.
Will he win in court?
I'd guess a substantial number of Republican politicians will tell him the game is up, but probably more of them won't. Giuliani, I'm looking at you.
Will he win in court?
Probably not.
I know the Supreme Court is majority Republican, but it still needs to find a legal justification for its rulings. What is there? Nothing. I can't see them agreeing to cancel 93m votes. Just can't see it.
But I still doubt Trump will concede this month...
I know the Supreme Court is majority Republican, but it still needs to find a legal justification for its rulings. What is there? Nothing. I can't see them agreeing to cancel 93m votes. Just can't see it.
But I still doubt Trump will concede this month...
I suspect he'll fight an increasingly unhinged, damaging and desperate battle, as increasing numbers of his entourage peel off and give up. There will be hardliners who are with him to the end, and there will likely be violence on the streets.
He won't care...
He won't care...
That's my best guess at what will happen. However, here's my second best guess.
He'll quit within 6 hours of polls closing, and just leave. No transitional Presidency, he'll just walk, claiming it's all a fraud and he's been cheated.
And his core followers will believe him...
He'll quit within 6 hours of polls closing, and just leave. No transitional Presidency, he'll just walk, claiming it's all a fraud and he's been cheated.
And his core followers will believe him...
And that means the jagged scar that runs athwart the political identity of America will remain.
In denying the validity of a democratic result, this unspeakably childish, stupid and vain man will continue to cause terrible harm to his country (and the world).
In denying the validity of a democratic result, this unspeakably childish, stupid and vain man will continue to cause terrible harm to his country (and the world).
It is going to be an incredibly unedifying sight.
Buy popcorn.
Buy popcorn.
