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10,000+ people have checked our Arizona ballot return dashboard today (which is being run by @sfalmy who you should follow for in the weeds details) -- but since a lot of you are new to how Arizona elections work think it's time to do a 101 class... https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
Democrats make up 32.2% of all registered voters in the state and we start every election with a disadvantage of around 120,000 registered voters. @katiehobbs has a lot of info here on historic party registration numbers: https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data
Because our voters are much younger, we have more variance in turnout than their side does. That means there are more habitual Republican voters than habitual Democratic voters in Arizona (you'll see us nerds refer to them as 4x4s as in they voted in 4 of the last 4 elections)
We see that pretty clearly in ballot requests by party. This year, for example, 1,508,311 Republicans requested a mail-in ballot while 1,377,531 Democrats did the same.
In short, there is NO PATH, to more Democrats voting than Republicans in Arizona. We're catching up in party registration numbers, but still likely years away from catching Republicans.
But here's the thing -- Democrats don't need to vote in higher numbers than Republicans to win. That's because 31.67% of registered voters are Independents.
Democratic campaigns very much know this and in recent years we've been winning bigger shares of those voters than in the past, and that's what allows us to win statewide elections.
