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Good morning! It's 10am EST on Thursday, November 5th, in this ridiculous year 2020. Here's what we know so far. (This thread will be updated throughout the day.)
In Arizona, a late night batch of results closed the margin slightly, but Biden still leads by about 68k. The AP and Fox called it Tuesday, other networks didn't, and nobody since then has found any of the new votes a reason to change their minds.
The best estimate I've heard is 430k outstanding ballots, so there's room to close further, but they're also all mail-in ballots so they're unlikely to break strongly for Trump if at all. https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324257844649025537
Next to Nevada. Vote counting resumes at 9am local time (12pm EST). Biden's lead is just under 8k votes, but most/all of the outstanding ones are about 100k mail ballots from Clark County (=Vegas, a blue county), so I would expect that lead to grow.
In Georgia, Trump's lead is down to just 18k votes. I'm hearing that they expect to have the last of the votes counted by noon. We're not going to know until the very end where this lands, and there'll probably be a recount after that.
Next to PA, where Trump's lead has shrunk to 135k (he started yesterday 500k+ ahead). As of 9:15am, the state reports over 760k mail ballots left to count, including 120k in Philly and 46k in Pittsburgh. Trump folks are definitely worried about that lead, and with good reason.
No news from North Carolina, where it's still a 77k lead for Trump with not a ton outstanding. Don't see that as likely to change much, but nobody's calling it yet.
So here's where we stand overall. Assuming nothing unexpected happens in AZ (i.e., Biden maintains his lead), that's 264 EVs. If he gets NV or GA, it's over. If he gets PA, it's over no matter what happens in AZ. There are a lot more paths to victory for Biden than for Trump.
For Trump to pull it out at this point, he'd need to win everything that hasn't been called yet - NV, GA, PA, and NC - or somehow take back AZ and keep 3 out of the other 4 (with one of those 3 being PA). If he loses PA, he's done. If he loses any 2 others, he's done.
(Well actually, if he takes back AZ and wins everything except GA, we're in the hellscape universe of a tie. But we don't need that kind of negativity in our lives today.)
That's everything worth knowing for now. I'll keep this thread updated throughout the day as we learn more. Godspeed, everyone.
Oh, and this isn't election related but is probably good for everyone's mental health right now. Here's the latest on Amelia's begging for my cold leftover breakfast pizza just now. She won the crust in a landslide. (This is what most of my feed is normally like, FYI.)
