Read on Twitter
It would be more plausible to take the lesson of the election being that it was difficult for the Democrats to win the Presidency. The idea it could have been an easy cakewalk for another Democrat lacks credibility. https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1324364392557928449
AN Other Democrat might well have beaten Trump in 2016. Hilary Clinton got within 1% in 3 key states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) and was unpopular with decisive groups of voters. But Trump has managed to retain and increase his vote in 2020.
It is an interesting question as to how far Joe Biden has or has not outperformed a generic AN Other Democrat presidential candidate in 2020. We would need more data/analysis to answer it properly.
While Democrats could attempt various coalitions & maps over time, the clearest 2020 path was to flip the states lost by 1% in 2016. (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan). Biden appeared a safe candidate to try that & has just done it. A poor result in Ohio. (Elsewhere Florida)
While Biden appears a safe choice to pitch to independents, esp blue-collar Obama 2008/Trump 2016 switchers, perhaps some linked downside in his low energy October campaign presence (though other factors were mobilising Democrats). Trump did energise his vote in the final weeks.
If we replace Biden not with AN Other Generic Democrat, but a decisively more radical "movement" candidate, may be all sorts of pros & cons over time. The argument there is a slam dunk short-term electoral gain if such a candidate won 2020 primaries = unproven & a bit implausible
As a medium/longterm hypothesis, hard to test. If it's a different agenda, a different coalition, a different map & a different organising model, it may introduce different risks/rewards over time, but the 'would definitely have done much better in 2020' version lacks credence.
The argument that Trump would *definitely have won easily* without Covid pandemic is overstated. If it is true, it weakens rather than strengthens central claim about the Democrats having 2020 election on a plate. (highlights dilemmas for Dems about movement & voting coalition)
Plausible that pandemic may have hurt Trump on economy in the closest swing states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
Implausible that it would have transformed the election map, which has a lot in common with 2016, because of mutual partisan polarisation and mobilisation
Implausible that it would have transformed the election map, which has a lot in common with 2016, because of mutual partisan polarisation and mobilisation
Thread on the very American reasons why extraordinary context of Covid may have mattered much less to the election than most of us would intuitively anticipate https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1324258524780761093?s=19
I do think Barack Obama could have won this election, if eligible to run in it. (Beyond his personal qualities, a very plausible case can be made that a Black centrist-liberal candidate profile offers some upside for currently viable Democrat winning electoral coalitions)
