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So if GA and PA go today, here's what I'm looking out for in terms of election nonsense from the Trump Campaign, along with my assessment of whether it's likely to succeed or not:
1. Recounts
Obviously, states that are very close will do a recount. In order for Trump to win, however, he'd have to win multiple recounts by >1000 votes. Historically, recounts shift the low 100s of votes. Vote counting is very accurate. This is unlikely to succeed.
Obviously, states that are very close will do a recount. In order for Trump to win, however, he'd have to win multiple recounts by >1000 votes. Historically, recounts shift the low 100s of votes. Vote counting is very accurate. This is unlikely to succeed.
2. Ballot challenges
Trump and the right have been screaming about voter fraud for ages, but there's simply no evidence it exists, let alone at the scale of 1000s of votes. States manage elections, and state courts have resoundingly ruled against him, making SCOTUS coup unlikely
Trump and the right have been screaming about voter fraud for ages, but there's simply no evidence it exists, let alone at the scale of 1000s of votes. States manage elections, and state courts have resoundingly ruled against him, making SCOTUS coup unlikely
3. Literal Seizure of Power
This would require a sympathetic party, which he no longer has, and a sympathetic military. There's a lot wrong with the US military, but the officer corps truly believes in the Constitution. They won't follow his orders.
This would require a sympathetic party, which he no longer has, and a sympathetic military. There's a lot wrong with the US military, but the officer corps truly believes in the Constitution. They won't follow his orders.
In essence, once these states start posting their results and once the numbers are in the neighborhood of +1500 for Biden, there is basically no precedent for overcoming that gap. Not even Bush v Gore.
There's one last option:
4. Faithless elector coup
This is actually possible. But, and this is why it's important to not settle once 270 is hit, the likelihood of this succeeding is slim.
It may work if it's 270-268, but practically I don't see 10-15 faithless votes happening.
4. Faithless elector coup
This is actually possible. But, and this is why it's important to not settle once 270 is hit, the likelihood of this succeeding is slim.
It may work if it's 270-268, but practically I don't see 10-15 faithless votes happening.
I'm not even sure if a faithless elector coup would succeed, as the original principles of the electoral college were to use it as a buffer against malfeasance, not to override the will of the people. I'm not convinced this would survive a legal challenge if tried.
