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There seems to be a systematic pattern to how the Government presents forecasts/predictions/scenarios to justify more restrictions & lockdowns.
It’s important they are held up to scrutiny after the event.
It’s important they are held up to scrutiny after the event.
On 16 Oct, @BorisJohnson justified forcing Tier 3 restrictions onto Greater Manchester because “On recent trends in just over two weeks there will be more Covid patients in intensive care than at the peak of the 1st wave”. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-tells-andy-22858205
At the peak, NHS report GM Trusts had 171 patients in mechanically ventilated beds (their best measure of ICU numbers).
As of 3 Nov (2.5 weeks after the PM's statement but too early for any Tier 3 effect) MV patients have increased but to 96, still just 56% of the April peak.
As of 3 Nov (2.5 weeks after the PM's statement but too early for any Tier 3 effect) MV patients have increased but to 96, still just 56% of the April peak.
NHS data indicate community admissions in GM Trusts likely peaked towards the end of Oct (based on the 7-day ave). Again, this is before any Tier 3 effect. Hopefully this will feed through into fewer MV patients in due course.
