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[1 / N]
Download Precinct data as PDF for Kent County, MI
https://electionreporting.com/county/db3f9865-656b-4704-9429-bd38e726ab42
Download Precinct data as PDF for Kent County, MI
https://electionreporting.com/county/db3f9865-656b-4704-9429-bd38e726ab42
[2 / N]
Copy paste the data to a text file. The Presidential data for precincts appears in the top part of the file (the remainder is senator and other races)
Copy paste the data to a text file. The Presidential data for precincts appears in the top part of the file (the remainder is senator and other races)
[3 / N]
Michigan has an interesting system for voting. You can either choose to vote straight party or vote for individual contests. What this means is that, for each precinct, there are two rows. One collating the straight party and the other individual.
Michigan has an interesting system for voting. You can either choose to vote straight party or vote for individual contests. What this means is that, for each precinct, there are two rows. One collating the straight party and the other individual.
[4 / N]
There are 252 distinct precincts in Kent county. Each precinct had 2 rows (straight party and individual). In the PDF, straight party rows have party name labels. Individual rows have candidate names as labels.
There are 252 distinct precincts in Kent county. Each precinct had 2 rows (straight party and individual). In the PDF, straight party rows have party name labels. Individual rows have candidate names as labels.
[5 / N]
To simplify the vote counts, I kept the Republican (Rep) and Democrat (Dem) votes as they were but combined the others (Oth). So each precinct has 2 total votes. Each of these totals is Rep + Dem + Oth. The vote counts I got agreed perfectly with the totals in the PDF.
To simplify the vote counts, I kept the Republican (Rep) and Democrat (Dem) votes as they were but combined the others (Oth). So each precinct has 2 total votes. Each of these totals is Rep + Dem + Oth. The vote counts I got agreed perfectly with the totals in the PDF.
[6 / N ]
Straight Party Democrat Votes = 102424
Individual Candidate Democrat Votes = 186753
Straight Party Republican Votes = 106223
Individual Candidate Republican Votes = 165318
See Pages 8 and 15 of PDF
Straight Party Democrat Votes = 102424
Individual Candidate Democrat Votes = 186753
Straight Party Republican Votes = 106223
Individual Candidate Republican Votes = 165318
See Pages 8 and 15 of PDF
[7 / N]
Given that these are separate rows the default assumption would be that the total D + R votes is 560718. But this is way more than the turnout for Kent county. Can a vote count in both straight and individual categories?
Given that these are separate rows the default assumption would be that the total D + R votes is 560718. But this is way more than the turnout for Kent county. Can a vote count in both straight and individual categories?
[8 / N]
The USA today site resolves the problem. Every voter who voted straight party also votes for the individual.
So the actual number of voters is 186753 + 165318 = 352071 people who voted for either Trump or Biden in Kent county (others are ignored). https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-presidential-MI-0/
The USA today site resolves the problem. Every voter who voted straight party also votes for the individual.
So the actual number of voters is 186753 + 165318 = 352071 people who voted for either Trump or Biden in Kent county (others are ignored). https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-presidential-MI-0/
[9 / N]
Straight Party Democrat Votes = 102424
Non-Straight Party Democrat Votes = 84329
Straight Party Republican Votes = 106223
Non-Straight Party Republican Votes = 59095
The # of voters who voted Trump or Biden = 352071
Straight Party Democrat Votes = 102424
Non-Straight Party Democrat Votes = 84329
Straight Party Republican Votes = 106223
Non-Straight Party Republican Votes = 59095
The # of voters who voted Trump or Biden = 352071
[10 / N]
The Non-Straight Party rows are calculated for each of the 252 precincts. In each precinct,
Non-Straight votes = Candidate Votes - Straight Party Votes
for Republican, Democrat and Others.
The Non-Straight Party rows are calculated for each of the 252 precincts. In each precinct,
Non-Straight votes = Candidate Votes - Straight Party Votes
for Republican, Democrat and Others.
[11 / N]
Non-Straight Party Republican voters are "Trump" voters. Straight Party Republican voters are "Republican" voters. These voter groups are different even though they both voted for Trump. The unit of analysis is the precinct. There are 252 precincts in Kent county.
Non-Straight Party Republican voters are "Trump" voters. Straight Party Republican voters are "Republican" voters. These voter groups are different even though they both voted for Trump. The unit of analysis is the precinct. There are 252 precincts in Kent county.
[12 / N]
Now we'll focus on the contrast between "Trump" voters and "Party" republicans. For each precinct, we have the votes for both types of voters. They both vote for Trump. The corresponding "Biden" voters and "Party" Democrats in the same precinct both vote for Biden.
Now we'll focus on the contrast between "Trump" voters and "Party" republicans. For each precinct, we have the votes for both types of voters. They both vote for Trump. The corresponding "Biden" voters and "Party" Democrats in the same precinct both vote for Biden.
[13 / N]
Precincts are geographical areas in the county. People within a precinct are more similar in their attitudes due to various causes that are outside the scope of this thread. We can expect diversity of political attitudes across precincts, even within the same county.
Precincts are geographical areas in the county. People within a precinct are more similar in their attitudes due to various causes that are outside the scope of this thread. We can expect diversity of political attitudes across precincts, even within the same county.
[14 / N]
And we do observe this attitudinal diversity, across 252 precincts. Support for Trump ranges from 6% to 85%. Regardless of the mechanism voters chose to vote (Straight Party or Otherwise), the precinct level support is expected to be similar due to common causal factors.
And we do observe this attitudinal diversity, across 252 precincts. Support for Trump ranges from 6% to 85%. Regardless of the mechanism voters chose to vote (Straight Party or Otherwise), the precinct level support is expected to be similar due to common causal factors.
[15 / N]
The correlation between the pure Trump % and the party Republican % support is 0.89. We will call this correlation Rxy. This is very strong and positive and indicates that both groups of voters support for Trump tracks as we move across precincts.
The correlation between the pure Trump % and the party Republican % support is 0.89. We will call this correlation Rxy. This is very strong and positive and indicates that both groups of voters support for Trump tracks as we move across precincts.
[16 / N] We mentioned that Trump had support ranging from 6% to 85%, overall. But this range is true only for straight party republican voters. For Trump voters, the range is highly restricted at the upper end. Here the range is 6% to 67%. Something is wrong.
[17 / N]
Indeed, the average support for Trump among straight party voters is 48.4% but the support among candidate voters is just 38.5%. That is a 10% difference! Post-hoc, various "innocent" explanations may be constructed for this pattern. But these theories would be wrong.
Indeed, the average support for Trump among straight party voters is 48.4% but the support among candidate voters is just 38.5%. That is a 10% difference! Post-hoc, various "innocent" explanations may be constructed for this pattern. But these theories would be wrong.
[18 / N]
Recall that Rxy was 0.88 which is very strong. Ceteris paribus, we wouldn't have expected a 10% difference across Party and candidate voter groups. There is yet another difference between these two groups, hinted earlier by the restricted range at the upper end.
Recall that Rxy was 0.88 which is very strong. Ceteris paribus, we wouldn't have expected a 10% difference across Party and candidate voter groups. There is yet another difference between these two groups, hinted earlier by the restricted range at the upper end.
[19 / N]
The standard deviation or SD is a measure of variability across precincts. For party Republican support % the SD is 0.189. For Trump support %, the SD is only 0.128. The ratio Trump_SD / Party_SD is about 0.67 or 2/3 rds, quite unexpected.
The standard deviation or SD is a measure of variability across precincts. For party Republican support % the SD is 0.189. For Trump support %, the SD is only 0.128. The ratio Trump_SD / Party_SD is about 0.67 or 2/3 rds, quite unexpected.
[20 / N]
@va_shiva constructed the following plot. The X axis was party support for Trump and the on the Y axis was candidate support for Trump minus party support. In the graph these are called Republican vote % and (Trump - Republican) Vote %.
![[20 / N] @va_shiva constructed the following plot. The X axis was party support for Trump and the on the Y axis was candidate support for Trump minus party support. In the graph these are called Republican vote % and (Trump - Republican) Vote %.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Emm-VvoXUAEC4qI.png "[20 / N] @va_shiva constructed the following plot. The X axis was party support for Trump and the on the Y axis was candidate support for Trump minus party support. In the graph these are called Republican vote % and (Trump - Republican) Vote %.")
@va_shiva constructed the following plot. The X axis was party support for Trump and the on the Y axis was candidate support for Trump minus party support. In the graph these are called Republican vote % and (Trump - Republican) Vote %.
[21 / N]
We can calculate the correlation in this scatter plot using the numbers that are posted in this thread. The correlation between X (Republican) and Y - X (Trump - Republican) is completely determined by this equation.
![[21 / N]We can calculate the correlation in this scatter plot using the numbers that are posted in this thread. The correlation between X (Republican) and Y - X (Trump - Republican) is completely determined by this equation.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Emm_f83XYAAYyIk.png "[21 / N]We can calculate the correlation in this scatter plot using the numbers that are posted in this thread. The correlation between X (Republican) and Y - X (Trump - Republican) is completely determined by this equation.")
We can calculate the correlation in this scatter plot using the numbers that are posted in this thread. The correlation between X (Republican) and Y - X (Trump - Republican) is completely determined by this equation.
[22 / N]
There are 2 parameters in the equation. λ is the ratio of the two standard deviations which was calculated as 0.67. Likewise Rxy was 0.888. Using these 2 parameters, the correlation between X and Y - X turns out to be - 0.791, a very regular negatively sloped line.
There are 2 parameters in the equation. λ is the ratio of the two standard deviations which was calculated as 0.67. Likewise Rxy was 0.888. Using these 2 parameters, the correlation between X and Y - X turns out to be - 0.791, a very regular negatively sloped line.
[23 / N]
I am not an election expert. I do not know much about voting machine internals. But given what we know about the Michigan voting procedure, I will speculate how these votes were influenced by algorithms. From here on, consider my observations to be speculative.
I am not an election expert. I do not know much about voting machine internals. But given what we know about the Michigan voting procedure, I will speculate how these votes were influenced by algorithms. From here on, consider my observations to be speculative.
[24 / N]
Assume that there is a code branch in the voting application. This is the straight party vs candidate choice. The vote manipulation is very likely to have been introduced in the candidate choice code branch (not the straight party branch).
Assume that there is a code branch in the voting application. This is the straight party vs candidate choice. The vote manipulation is very likely to have been introduced in the candidate choice code branch (not the straight party branch).
[25 / N]
This "special" branch code must use knowledge of precinct characteristics in some way, either statically based on past data or dynamically. Statically seem easier. They could divide 252 precincts into 5 categories (very high, high, medium, low, very low) Republican %.
This "special" branch code must use knowledge of precinct characteristics in some way, either statically based on past data or dynamically. Statically seem easier. They could divide 252 precincts into 5 categories (very high, high, medium, low, very low) Republican %.
[26 / N]
Associated with each of these categories would be a probability of a vote flip. Maybe the probability of flip could be near zero for precincts with very few Republican voters and gradually increases. Stealing votes is easier in high Republican precincts.
Associated with each of these categories would be a probability of a vote flip. Maybe the probability of flip could be near zero for precincts with very few Republican voters and gradually increases. Stealing votes is easier in high Republican precincts.
[27 / N]
They could have chosen methods (which I will not elaborate here) to cover their tracks. But perhaps due to the software architecture and time pressure, something quick and dirty had to be rolled out. This has impacted elections in the supposed leader of free world.
They could have chosen methods (which I will not elaborate here) to cover their tracks. But perhaps due to the software architecture and time pressure, something quick and dirty had to be rolled out. This has impacted elections in the supposed leader of free world.
[28 / N]
I will end here. 28 is a perfect number. I will post code and data for Kent county on github. I do not feel happy at all. Voting is a sacred obligation for citizens. What these people have done is beyond disgusting. Future elections should be free and fair. Peace.
I will end here. 28 is a perfect number. I will post code and data for Kent county on github. I do not feel happy at all. Voting is a sacred obligation for citizens. What these people have done is beyond disgusting. Future elections should be free and fair. Peace.
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