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Let’s say someone hands you a vaccine for Covid-19 and makes you choose between two recipients.
Candidate 1 is a college student who plays beer pong all weekend at underground frat parties.
Candidate 2 is his widowed grandmother, who’s been homebound since March.
Who gets it?
Candidate 1 is a college student who plays beer pong all weekend at underground frat parties.
Candidate 2 is his widowed grandmother, who’s been homebound since March.
Who gets it?
Compassion and common sense say Grandma should get the shot, because her age and health make her more vulnerable to the virus.
On the other hand, Frat Bro is a super-spreader event waiting to happen. If you inoculate him, you potentially protect a whole lot of other people.
On the other hand, Frat Bro is a super-spreader event waiting to happen. If you inoculate him, you potentially protect a whole lot of other people.
Do we use that precious first shipment of Covid-19 vaccines to inoculate society’s most vulnerable individuals, or do we privilege the good of the broader population?
That’s the dilemma @cwhe explores in his new feature for @WIRED https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/
That’s the dilemma @cwhe explores in his new feature for @WIRED https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/
At the center of the story is a technique called acquaintance immunization, borrowed from network science.
It says that the quickest way to end an outbreak is to inoculate the “hubs” in a social network—the most highly connected people.
A.k.a. the super-spreaders.
It says that the quickest way to end an outbreak is to inoculate the “hubs” in a social network—the most highly connected people.
A.k.a. the super-spreaders.
How do you find them? Easy. Take a random sample of the population, ask each person to name an acquaintance, then vaccinate the acquaintance.
This works because of something called the friendship paradox, which holds that your friends have more friends, on average, than you do.
This works because of something called the friendship paradox, which holds that your friends have more friends, on average, than you do.
The results can be astounding: Without any kind of targeted strategy at all, you’d need to vaccinate around 60–80% of the population to stop the pandemic.
With acquaintance immunization, the number drops to 10–20%.
In other words: Bye-bye super-spreaders, bye-bye Covid-19.
With acquaintance immunization, the number drops to 10–20%.
In other words: Bye-bye super-spreaders, bye-bye Covid-19.
There’s so much else to this story. Come for the nerdy network theory, stay for the cameo from the chairman of the board of the Fraternal Order of Real Bearded Santas: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/
