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There's lots of talk about how partisan gerrymandering will now run amok. Maybe I am a glass-half-full guy, but I see gains in the last decade, and possible routes to holding the line in 2021 and beyond.
Some state-by-state thoughts:
Some state-by-state thoughts:
First, a general view:
Legislative gerrymandering is important because it sets up a feedback loop that keeps a party in power. Critical to address.
Congressional gerrymandering distorts representation (little-d democracy), elects nonresponsive memebrs (little-r republicanism).
Legislative gerrymandering is important because it sets up a feedback loop that keeps a party in power. Critical to address.
Congressional gerrymandering distorts representation (little-d democracy), elects nonresponsive memebrs (little-r republicanism).
Pennsylvania: job #1 is addressing the state legislative map. Mechanism is a bipartisan commission w/court-appointed chair. The key: get a neutral chair. Public pressure may be the best approach.
Congressional map is a statute. Will be bipartisan b/c of legislature and governor.
Congressional map is a statute. Will be bipartisan b/c of legislature and governor.
Michigan: thanks to @NotPoliticians and many Michiganders' efforts, there will be an independent commission! Breaks the feedback loop. Done.
Even if SCOTUS strikes down commission Congressional authority, (a) it can still draw state lege, and (b) again lege+gov is bipartisan.
Even if SCOTUS strikes down commission Congressional authority, (a) it can still draw state lege, and (b) again lege+gov is bipartisan.
A second feature is that the Michigan state Supreme Court is now majority-Democrat, which is opposite to the party in control of the legislature. Again, a balancing mechanism.
Ohio: A harder situation, single-party control, allowing partisan gerrymanders.
Use public input. Also, the state court is now 4 R, 3 D. Under the new Fair Districts laws, argue for fairness: test maps for incumbent protection, noncompetitive districts. Leave party out of it.
Use public input. Also, the state court is now 4 R, 3 D. Under the new Fair Districts laws, argue for fairness: test maps for incumbent protection, noncompetitive districts. Leave party out of it.
Wisconsin: In theory, this is another situation where bipartisan governance can save the day. The General Assembly is arguably the most gerrymandered body in the nation. But they lack a supermajority and must work with @GovEvers.
Severity of the 'mander:
https://web.math.princeton.edu/~sswang/wang16_ElectionLawJournal_gerrymandering-MD-WI_.pdf
Severity of the 'mander:
https://web.math.princeton.edu/~sswang/wang16_ElectionLawJournal_gerrymandering-MD-WI_.pdf
Rumor has it the legislature is considering the gambit of passing a map by resolution, rather than the usual statute.
This runs into a buzzsaw of precedent forbidding it. Here, Rick Ober and I review precedents. (Hey law reviews, this could be yours!!) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3669075
This runs into a buzzsaw of precedent forbidding it. Here, Rick Ober and I review precedents. (Hey law reviews, this could be yours!!) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3669075
North Carolina: another tough case. The House map was not completely de-gerrymandered by a court case last year. So even though 53% of voters chose D, 57% of seats went R: https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1326936778998214657
This will have to go through courts again, but the courts have to do better. How?
This will have to go through courts again, but the courts have to do better. How?
Two steps:
1) Massive & rapid public input, evaluating maps as they are drafted. Create a prompt evidentiary trail. Needs rapid scoring.
2) Don't do simulations that have partisan bias. Plaintiffs did that, the NCGA turned it back on them in court. Needs algorithmic innovation.
1) Massive & rapid public input, evaluating maps as they are drafted. Create a prompt evidentiary trail. Needs rapid scoring.
2) Don't do simulations that have partisan bias. Plaintiffs did that, the NCGA turned it back on them in court. Needs algorithmic innovation.
Florida: OK, this is a tough one. But there is a route.
Single-party control of government, including state court. A big obstacle. But we do have the Fair Districts amendments.
Bring suit in state court. Again, emphasize competition & incumbency protection. Don't analyze party.
Single-party control of government, including state court. A big obstacle. But we do have the Fair Districts amendments.
Bring suit in state court. Again, emphasize competition & incumbency protection. Don't analyze party.
Maryland: unlike 2010, there's bipartisan government (D legislature, R governor). Democrats are the ones who can be divided by public pressure to be fair. Therefore peel off a few Democrats, and the monstrosities of 2011 can be prevented.
Virginia: again, there's a commission (hooray for @OneVirginia2021 and all the advocates in the state such as @VVforDelegate) in place. Plus enabling legislation that puts seatbelts on the process.
In Virginia, lots of work ahead but a good process. Optimistic about Virginia.
In Virginia, lots of work ahead but a good process. Optimistic about Virginia.
Here's a guide @princetongerry wrote last year. Needs updating, but the ideas are all there - and they all passed!!!
https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/assets/docs/PGP_VA_Report_final.pdf
https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/assets/docs/PGP_VA_Report_final.pdf
On the topic of commissions, a few states where the problem is under control:
Arizona (a pioneer)
California (another pioneer; also, SCOTUS may balk at striking down commissions if it would give this heavily-D state a freer hand)
Colorado
Arizona (a pioneer)
California (another pioneer; also, SCOTUS may balk at striking down commissions if it would give this heavily-D state a freer hand)
Colorado
OK, now to some tough cases.
Texas: this is a hard situation. one party controls legislature, governor, and backup commission in case lege+gov deadlock.
The one hope for state legislative districts is a requirement to respect county boundaries. Best hope, robust public input.
Texas: this is a hard situation. one party controls legislature, governor, and backup commission in case lege+gov deadlock.
The one hope for state legislative districts is a requirement to respect county boundaries. Best hope, robust public input.
Georgia, a similar sad story. In TX+GA, Congressional gerrymandering will likely produce, maybe, 5-7 extra seats for GOP and bipartisan safety for every incumbent.
However, there will still be fights b/c of exclusion of noncitizens and racial factors. Lots of action in TX/GA.
However, there will still be fights b/c of exclusion of noncitizens and racial factors. Lots of action in TX/GA.
I'll add to this list later.
All of this is to say that there is hope for the future! But it's going to be work, and some of the distortions will affect 2022.
The challenges are to minimize the offenses, and undo them as fast as possible. Faster w/o federal courts, frankly.
All of this is to say that there is hope for the future! But it's going to be work, and some of the distortions will affect 2022.
The challenges are to minimize the offenses, and undo them as fast as possible. Faster w/o federal courts, frankly.
