Thread by @TiCxara, As we surpass $1 Billion, one could make an argument $PAR is [...]

As we surpass $1 Billion, one could make an argument $PAR is reaching fair valuation. But given excellent execution this story is FAR from finished.

-Thread-

We know brink is extremely valuable. We experienced a pandemic that was cataclysmic for the restaurant industry. Yet YTD we are UP 2,201 locations (12.25% YTD). With 430 sites still temporarily closed.

Naturally $PAR had a slowdown of installs during hardest covid-19 months. However, when @SavneetS was asked during Q2 about value of brink, "those that had (brink) significantly outperformed those that didn't"

Brink gives you optionality as a restaurant, it allows you to adapt, it helps you organize, it improves the efficiency of a restaurant operation. It has all the traits of a desirable product. We know there will be demand for a product such as Brink.

# of Brink locations is probably one of the most important variables to look at when valuing $PAR
Getting brink installed is BIG. It starts a very long and mutually lucrative relationship with a restaurant.
Given current environment, install #'s are extremely impressive.

What can we expect for future installs? In latest earnings call @Adam_Wyden asks if it is realistic to see 2000/2500 installs in a quarter by Q4-21. Savneet's response was even-tempered but optimistic.

So the variable that is holding installs back is lack of resource allocation into MARKETING. As a shareholder this is very good news, as it is a variable that $PAR can control and expand. (maybe capital raise suggests more resource allocation into marketing)

Forecasting three scenarios for brink installations by Q4-21. Bear-red, Base-yellow, Bull-green.
Bear case suggests ~710 new installs per Q
Base case suggests ~950 new installs per Q
Bull cases suggests ~1500 new installs per Q

If $PAR allocates lots of resources into marketing, a bull case scenario of 2000 new installs per Q by Q4-21 isn't impossible.

We're currently sitting at an ARPU of ~$2000.
By Q4 2021, it's realistic to see 10% expansion with upselling.
Base: We see FWD ARR of brink push $35 million. With Restaurant Magic included $45 million is realistic.
We sit at a Brink/RM FWD P/S of ~22 without backing out assets.

All this is ignoring the possibility of PAR Pay becoming a serious contributor to Brink ARR. Or the the possible sale of government business which would unlock more liquidity and resources for further growth.

Competitors such as Toast (pre-covid) generate large percentages of their revenue from Payments. We know payments can contribute serious revenue. And have reason to believe with $PAR execution that they can scale Par Pay.

$PAR has plenty of growth left in brands they already have Brink installments in. (10,000-12,000 locations).

Ramping marketing efforts, which could increase amount of partnered brands, can dramatically increase their immediate addressable market of MSA locations.

Short-term we have 3 main possible bullish catalysts unfolding of:
1. Government Sale
2. PAR Pay development
3. Installation Acceleration.

Path of least resistance is higher for share price. $PAR

Long-term you have a fairly valued business, with a kickass product, high quality and transparent management, and a massive TAM (restaurant industry).

Although, long-term risks of stalling installations, better products from other competitors, or a management departure.

Brink+RM are being given a similar valuation to competitors such as $LSPD
Given quicker growth, management, and a visible executable plan. It's hard not to have $PAR being a part of your portfolio.

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