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I understand and agree with many of these points, but I don't think the timeline of 3-5 months is realistic.
With a green zone strategy, many places don't have to do much at all before opening up and living like normal. That is, for them, the duration of lockdown is ~0. https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1328561463947096064
With a green zone strategy, many places don't have to do much at all before opening up and living like normal. That is, for them, the duration of lockdown is ~0. https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1328561463947096064
Isaac lean towards getting cases low and keeping R~1.
1) If you can get cases low, you can get them to zero
2) If you can keep R~1, a bit more work gets you to containment
3) This state is highly unstable, as we've seen from dozens of countries. https://twitter.com/endCOVID19/status/1326402963611521026?s=20
1) If you can get cases low, you can get them to zero
2) If you can keep R~1, a bit more work gets you to containment
3) This state is highly unstable, as we've seen from dozens of countries. https://twitter.com/endCOVID19/status/1326402963611521026?s=20
I don't know if Canadian's will accept what is necessary for zero covid.
1) What makes us think they will accept what is needed to get cases low and then maintain R~1?
2) The probability of Canadians accepting zero covid is dynamic. People are tired of yo-yo lockdowns.
1) What makes us think they will accept what is needed to get cases low and then maintain R~1?
2) The probability of Canadians accepting zero covid is dynamic. People are tired of yo-yo lockdowns.
A preview of regions in Canada which are either at zero or very close already.
These are probably all low-population regions, but my point is that they certainly don't need 3-5 months.
These are probably all low-population regions, but my point is that they certainly don't need 3-5 months.
I really am very happy to see that zero covid is at least being discussed in Canada. I'd be very happy to see either zero or very low case rates.
Either way, the paths are similar. So, we should get to work.
Either way, the paths are similar. So, we should get to work.
