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New @CAPolicyLab Report:
Me, @TillvonWachter, @alexbellecon & Geoff Schnorr are back with a new analysis of UI claimants in California.
A few takeaways to share, starting with the most dire:
Winter is coming. (1)
Me, @TillvonWachter, @alexbellecon & Geoff Schnorr are back with a new analysis of UI claimants in California.
A few takeaways to share, starting with the most dire:
Winter is coming. (1)
A key feature in this report is our projection of benefits exhaustions. UI claimants face 2 cliffs, the first of which is nearly upon us.
On December 26th, we will fall off the "PUA Cliff" - where both the PUA and PEUC programs expire. (2)
On December 26th, we will fall off the "PUA Cliff" - where both the PUA and PEUC programs expire. (2)
Absent immediate Federal action, we project 750,000 Californians will be pushed off benefits by year’s end (Combining PUA + Regular exhaustees). Despite there being 2x as many unemployed as there are job openings, the govt has chosen to leave these workers out in the cold. (3)
In May, the claimants who lost their jobs in March will begin exhausting 59 weeks of benefits, as we reach another wave of exhaustions. We expect another half-million claimants to have fully exhausted benefits by May 29th - a number which will grow throughout the summer. (4)
These are projections, and are based on assumptions:
Our Appendix explains our methodology, and how changing key assumptions could affect our estimates. (and also why our estimates differ from @ENPancotti + @pelhamprog's excellent report yesterday) (5) https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Technical-Appendix-for-Nov-19th-CPL-Analysis-of-UI-Claims-in-California.pdf
Our Appendix explains our methodology, and how changing key assumptions could affect our estimates. (and also why our estimates differ from @ENPancotti + @pelhamprog's excellent report yesterday) (5) https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Technical-Appendix-for-Nov-19th-CPL-Analysis-of-UI-Claims-in-California.pdf
We go on to provide an analysis of the current state of CA's labor market:
*New* Initial claims have dropped substantially following EDD’s freeze on accepting new claims, while Additional claims (claims reopened after a claimant returned to work) remain elevated. (6)
*New* Initial claims have dropped substantially following EDD’s freeze on accepting new claims, while Additional claims (claims reopened after a claimant returned to work) remain elevated. (6)
While the number of individuals currently receiving benefits has continued its downward trend, it is still extremely high - over 17% of the labor force is currently receiving UI benefits. Furthermore, racial disparities remain elevated- the same stat for the black LF was 33%. (7)
We also look at how the recovery is going for different industries by comparing the % of the industry's LF receiving benefits at the peak of the crisis (early May) and more recently. The variation in how hard some industries were hit, and the pace of their recovery, is stark. (8)
Our full report delves deeper into all of these issues and more. You can read it, or any of our previous reports, here:
https://www.capolicylab.org/publications/november-19th-analysis-of-unemployment-insurance-claims-in-california-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Special thanks to our partners at @CA_EDD who make all this research possible.
https://www.capolicylab.org/publications/november-19th-analysis-of-unemployment-insurance-claims-in-california-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Special thanks to our partners at @CA_EDD who make all this research possible.
cc’ing some UI/Policy people + #EconTwitter
@TheStalwart @EricMorath @sechaney @paulgp @kevinrinz @ElizaForsythe @keds_economist @ernietedeschi @jc_econ @p_ganong @Jstein_WaPo @arindube @bencasselman @noahpinion @ryanlcooper @EricMorath @sechaney
@TheStalwart @EricMorath @sechaney @paulgp @kevinrinz @ElizaForsythe @keds_economist @ernietedeschi @jc_econ @p_ganong @Jstein_WaPo @arindube @bencasselman @noahpinion @ryanlcooper @EricMorath @sechaney
and a few other policy/econ people who may be interested :)
@modeledBehavior @margotroosevelt @josheidelson
@jimtankersley @katedavidson @missRyley @sdonnan @JordanChariton @hshierholz @JHWeissmann
@dylanmatt @mattyglesias @jbarro @neil_irwin
@modeledBehavior @margotroosevelt @josheidelson
@jimtankersley @katedavidson @missRyley @sdonnan @JordanChariton @hshierholz @JHWeissmann
@dylanmatt @mattyglesias @jbarro @neil_irwin
