Read on Twitter
Has been well worth getting up at 4.15am this morning for the fascinating presentations in today's @iza_bonn Workshop "Labor Markets and the Phillips Curve"!
http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/Macro_2020/viewProgram?conf_id=3357 https://twitter.com/iza_bonn/status/1310966752579289089
http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/Macro_2020/viewProgram?conf_id=3357 https://twitter.com/iza_bonn/status/1310966752579289089
Tenreyro & McLeay argue that the apparently weak Phillips Curve could actually be consistent with a strong underlying Phillips Curve. Optimal response from monetary policymakers - who respond to demand shocks - would mean we wouldn't observe the underlying PC relationship ex post
@Ricardo_Duque_ estimates Phillips curves over the long run - 1870 to present - using data from 17 countries. Among other things, he finds big time variation in avg slope of the Phillips curve. Other periods with low slopes: preWW1 gold standard and early Bretton Woods era
Trabandt & Linde show that two smallish adjustments to the standard NK model -- Kimball demand (real rigidities) + not linearizing -- produce a highly nonlinear Phillips Curve. This could resolve the "missing deflation" puzzle of recent years.
@gabrielgrizzly finds in Denmark that firms subject to credit shocks shift the composition of workforce to lower-wage workers. Laid off high-wage workers are re-employed but also at lower wages. These compositional effects can help explain low wage growth after Great Recession
@marcodelnegro, @gprimice, @miclenza & @tamba_NYC suggest the changing inflation-unemployment rel'shp is due to a flattening AS curve. Eg: they find no change in responsiveness of US unemployment to demand shocks since 1990 -- but inflation response has disappeared.
Gali & Gambetti ask if the apparent change in the reduced form wage PC relationship holds up to a semi-structural analysis. Their estimates also show a declining rel'shp between wage growth and unemployment, and a disappearing effect of past price inflation on wages
PAPERS:
McLeay & Tenreyro: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/
Duque Gabriel: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689791
Linde & Trabandt: https://sites.google.com/site/mathiastrabandt/home/research
Zuellig: http://gabrielzuellig.ch/research/
Del Negro et al: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/whats-up-with-the-phillips-curve/
Gali & Gambetti: https://www.crei.cat/people/gali/
McLeay & Tenreyro: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/
Duque Gabriel: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689791
Linde & Trabandt: https://sites.google.com/site/mathiastrabandt/home/research
Zuellig: http://gabrielzuellig.ch/research/
Del Negro et al: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/whats-up-with-the-phillips-curve/
Gali & Gambetti: https://www.crei.cat/people/gali/
