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1/Here's some stuff for Black Friday. I have never shared the panic being generated by local media nor have I ever bought into the fear being perpetuated by our @Allegheny_Co elected and appointed leaders (Allegheny County, PA). I continue to reject it. Here's why (thread):
2/The continued obsession with "cases" (i.e., positive tests) is borderline criminal. Unprecidented testing levels are strongly related to finding "cases" (i.e.,positive tests), especially in November..clearly shown by the shape of the curves in this figure (note different axes)
3/Shown another way, positive tests found are only a fraction of tests administered. Please don't tell me that "percent positive" is a meaningful metric for tracking spread; it's not - it's most useful for random testing of the population, which is not what we have here.
4/Hospitalizalizations can be of concern if capacity is an issue - despite Dr. Bogen @HealthAllegheny alarmist press release today, capacity is well within normal limits in the county; according to both objective capacity and utilization data & statements from UPMC and AGH.
5/So, even though "cases" are "breaking records" and are "highest ever", hospitalizations remain a fraction of positive cases - even less so in the past month and raw hospitalization numbers look very much like they did in July (our "worst" month).
6/And cv19 attributed deaths? Still only a tiny fraction of positive tests found and low and flat overall...and no excess death in PA for months...
7/So, report accurately and stop formeting panic for the sake of clicks and viewership; you're doing your public a terrible disservice @WPXI @WTAE @KDKA @TribLIVE @905wesa @PittsburghPG @PGHCityPaper @SpotlightPA
8/And @HealthAllegheny please stop the needless panic over "cases" and provide some context to your daily updates (e.g., like PCR Ct; % "cases that are asymptomatic; hospitalized with vs for cv19; deaths with vs from cv19, etc.)
9/...and above all else, implement rational, evidence-based policies - not panic-driven ones. This goes for you too, @GovernorTomWolf @SecretaryLevine @PAHealthDept - history will not look kindly on your efforts during the cv19 era...your legacies are at stake.
