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So, we nos finally have the framework for transfers and registration of overseas footballers in England post #Brexit from January 1st, as announced yesterday. A few thoughts after looking at some data. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/dec/01/work-permits-for-eu-players-and-no-under-18-signings-in-post-brexit-regulations
First, a couple of details that are important. The limit to sign U-21s applies to @premierleague, not to @EFL clubs. Similarly, the criteria to sign players for @BarclaysFAWSL are slightly different, as youth national team caps are not included in the criteria as per reports.
The much talked ban on U18s signings was known and expected. It is not really a new rule, as this will bring the UK in line with FIFA regulations, which EU member states have an exception from by virtue of the 2001 'agreement' with @EU_Commission
The agreement seems to be a compromise. @FA was reported to want a stronger limitation, with talks of a system based on quotas of locally trained players. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/04/06/brexit-premier-league-fa-odds-immigration-exemptions-foreign/
. @premierleague wanted a legal exemption from the new inmigration regime, that was never to go well with current governmental policy. This was even clearer given the rather surprising recent bitter confrontation of @premierleague and its clubs with some senior HMG figures.
Whereas @fa got a concession in the number of U21 signings allowed per transfer window, it had to drop its more aggresive plans of player quotas. In balance, for me this round went to the clubs, as it often does.
Now, to the effect of the restrictions. First, a word of caution. Given the Withdrawal Agreement provisions, the number of EEA players will take some time to go down. Those already in the country have the right to stay indefinitely if granted (pre)settled status.
The new points work permit system will invariably have an effect. The best data I could look at suggest c. 350 of current EEA players in the 92 professional clubs would fail to get a work permit. That is between 3 to 4 players per club, 16% of a 25-players A squad.
As a qualitative researcher, I have of course to recourse to names, and invariably it is always @ChelseaFC_Sp's N'Golo Kanté the one that is mostly cited as a signing that would not have made work permit criteria.
It seems to me that the combination of banning/reducing young players' transfers and the work permit could likely benefit clubs linked to other clubs in Europe. And perhaps even more to multi-club conglomerates such as the City Football Group, the Pozzo family network or similar.
I am not familiar enough with the women's game, and I'd welcome input from colleagues such as @StaceyPope20 or @jwelf, but given recent @BarclaysFAWSL drive to bring in foreign talent, I guess some effect might be felt. Although it seems most signings are of high level stars.
It is also necessary to remember that UEFA rules on locally trained players still apply. So clubs in UEFA competitions still need to have 8 locally trained players in their A squad, which needs to be seen in conjunction with new rules.
Now we enter the area of 'educated guesses'. It is likely that the area most affected for clubs will be scouting and recruitment of young talent, very much developed since Arsene Wenger's Arsenal. This, in theory, might drive transfer budget up.
In recruiting older and (in theory) 'better' players, clubs might need to pay more for them, including compensation for training to the clubs that brought up those footballers, as per FIFA regulations.
Then again, clubs might turn to train more young talent, as wished by @fa. How likely? We'll see. I am interested in having your views.
Finally, I would like to call attention to areas away from player recruitment. The role of foreign coaches and sport scientists has been paramount in the development of @premierleague and wider football in this country. These professionals will now also face new barriers.
Another final thought. From all I am reading, it seems as not many English football clubs have prepared in advance for this new reality. Football is a business of the day, and long term thinking is scarcely found. We will see some improvisation as we go along. /END
