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Buried lede:
Iran taking steps in response to Israeli/US murder of nuclear scientist.
Iranian moves have been rational by metrics of compellence/deterrence (JCPOA, Soleimani: proportional, consistency). this is “Trump Administration,” GOP, & Israel salting the Earth. 1/2 https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1334225604485517317
Iran taking steps in response to Israeli/US murder of nuclear scientist.
Iranian moves have been rational by metrics of compellence/deterrence (JCPOA, Soleimani: proportional, consistency). this is “Trump Administration,” GOP, & Israel salting the Earth. 1/2 https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1334225604485517317
2/3
Iranian steps (now & threatened) & issues:
Now: enrichment from 3.xx% to 20% is big deal for narrow calculations of so-called breakout time to a nuclear weapon.
For Biden b/c ejection of IAEA under those conditions erodes surety & is...worrisome. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-enrichment-inspectors.html
Iranian steps (now & threatened) & issues:
Now: enrichment from 3.xx% to 20% is big deal for narrow calculations of so-called breakout time to a nuclear weapon.
For Biden b/c ejection of IAEA under those conditions erodes surety & is...worrisome. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-enrichment-inspectors.html
3/4
Bullshit “tough on Iran” (rooted in significant part in fucked up imaginaries of masculinity, violence, & compellence) also issue given eg domestic politics & Iranian setting of deadline (3 months not 1, I note).
HT @ferencdv for the illustrative #EnrichmentBanana
Bullshit “tough on Iran” (rooted in significant part in fucked up imaginaries of masculinity, violence, & compellence) also issue given eg domestic politics & Iranian setting of deadline (3 months not 1, I note).
HT @ferencdv for the illustrative #EnrichmentBanana
4/5
For further demonstration of why the move beyond certain amounts of 20% enriched uranium becomes potentially worrisome in some situations, even with inspectors, and especially if you’ve set a conditional deadline for kicking them out.
For further demonstration of why the move beyond certain amounts of 20% enriched uranium becomes potentially worrisome in some situations, even with inspectors, and especially if you’ve set a conditional deadline for kicking them out.
5/5
Trump’s “policy” toward Iran has been—with a notable exception that we are not currently in a large scale ground war with Iran—a provocative clusterfuck of malfeasance and lies.
Stated behavior—goal mismatch goes beyond miscalculation & fallacy of last move. https://twitter.com/nuclearanthro/status/1332453653702066176
Trump’s “policy” toward Iran has been—with a notable exception that we are not currently in a large scale ground war with Iran—a provocative clusterfuck of malfeasance and lies.
Stated behavior—goal mismatch goes beyond miscalculation & fallacy of last move. https://twitter.com/nuclearanthro/status/1332453653702066176
