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THREAD on Germany’s recent decision to put on hold the procurement of #TLVS (a proposed integrated air-defense system) and why this constitutes a fatal mistake. Bear with me, it’s going to be a long one. 1/20
In terms of missile and air defense, Germany currently operates @RaytheonDefense's MIM-104 Patriot system. For several years now, the German Ministry of Defense has been negotiating with MBDA to procure the new integrated air-defense system, TLVS. 2/20
A couple of days ago, the minister of defense confirmed that TLVS would be put on hold for now in favor of pursuing other major projects, such as the procurement of a heavy transport helicopter. I believe this decision is a bad one, for five many reasons: 3/20
1. For one thing, Patriot is an old system. Maintenance costs for military equipment tend to grow exponentially over time. This is not going be any different with Patriot. 4/20
For example, it is going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to acquire Travelling Wave Tubes (TWTs) which are needed to amplify Patriot’s radar waves. Already now, the operationality of German Patriots is compromised by the unavailability of sufficient TWTs. 5/20
TWT also constitutes an old technology. Modern AESA radars (such as TLVS would use) do not require TWTs. This makes them much more robust and easier to operate. 6/20
2. Sticking with Patriot also means that Germany will have to continue relying on @LockheedMartin's PAC-3 MSE interceptors without prospects for a EU system replacing them. PAC-3 MSEs are, however, relatively old, expensive, and not up-to-date with the newest technology. 7/20
3. But it gets worse: once the US army has switched to the “Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense System” (AIAMD), the costs will rise even more. If Germany then decides to seriously pursue air defense, it will have to adopt AIAMD as well, for lack of an EU alternative 8/20
By continue relying on imported US technology, however, the Bundeswehr won’t have detailed insights into all functions and technical capabilities of its air-defense system. 9/20
This is understandable from a US point of view, seeing that US manufacturers want to keep their technologies secret, but it makes German and European mission planning substantially more difficult. 10/20
Deployment in a crisis/conflict situation can therefore only take place once US data has been provided, following a lengthy and complicated data release process. 11/20
This makes quick relocation and time-critical deployment virtually impossible. In addition, the Bundeswehr would be completely dependent on the respective political position of the US government regarding the deployment. 12/20
4. Continued reliance on US export products (Patriot, AIAMD) for air defense will also set back European defense policy. European partners won’t appreciate continued reliance on American exports. 13/20
It will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to later integrate imported products into an integrated European air-defense system (should it ever come about). 14/20
US authorities would ask for insights concerning design and performance of the European system, something the French and other partners would likely never be able to agree to. 15/20
TLVS could have constituted the core of a common European integrated air defense, notwithstanding Lockheed’s corporation in it. Currently, there is no other project on the horizon that could replace TLVS in this regard. 16/20
5. The failure to adopt TLVS would also mean a significant setback to #FCAS. A European air combat system requires a European air defense system. This is necessary in order to prevent fratricide and operate efficiently and in an integrated manner. 17/20
In order for defense and combat systems to work in a truly integrated manner though, a high number of datalinks and large amount of data-exchange is required, something that imported systems would likely not support. 18/20
With the imminent downfall of TLVS, the integration of ground-based and air-born air-defense moved into the far distance. This is a serious blow to European and German cross-domain warfare. 19/20
One can therefore only hope that the @akk, @BMVg_Bundeswehr, certain parliamentarians, and the @bundeswehrInfo reconsider their position on this issue. If Germany is serious about its national and European security objectives, there is no way around TLVS. 20/20
