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Re-reassurance thread: Safe Harbor:
I've got a couple of minutes and have seen a bunch of questions on this. So let's talk about the Dec 8 Electoral College "safe harbor."
tl:dr - Yes, Trump is probably trying to string things past that date. No, this isn't cause for concern.
I've got a couple of minutes and have seen a bunch of questions on this. So let's talk about the Dec 8 Electoral College "safe harbor."
tl:dr - Yes, Trump is probably trying to string things past that date. No, this isn't cause for concern.
If states totalling more than 270 EV that are in the Biden column have finished all litigation etc by the 8th, this is devastating to Trump.
But if that doesn't happen, it's a mild inconvenience for Biden.
But if that doesn't happen, it's a mild inconvenience for Biden.
That's because, if you look at the text of the statute, the selection of electors for any state that has challenge procedures is "conclusive" if everything is final by the 8th.
So if >270 Biden are conclusive by that date, Trump is out of options for challenging the EC.
So if >270 Biden are conclusive by that date, Trump is out of options for challenging the EC.
Objections might get made by that dingdong Congresscritter from AL and some schmuck Senator (there are several to choose from) but the resolution is clear. (And would be anyway, but we'll come back to that.)
So states hitting that date are fatal to Trump's nearly-evaporated hopes. But, if you look at the law, missing that date has no other consequences - the only thing that happens is that the choice of electors isn't automatically conclusive for that state.
It doesn't invalidate the election. It doesn't mean that the election has failed. And it doesn't put the power to select electors back in the hands of the legislature no matter how much Republican infants beat on the table and claim it does.
The procedures under state law simply continue. That's all.
The electors will still - unless a court rules otherwise - vote on the 14th. Those votes will still go to DC. And while an objection becomes less frivolous, it doesn't become any more likely to succeed.
The electors will still - unless a court rules otherwise - vote on the 14th. Those votes will still go to DC. And while an objection becomes less frivolous, it doesn't become any more likely to succeed.
As @greg_doucette points out at considerable length, the two outcomes (this year) to a challenge to a state's electors in Congress are "President Biden" or "Acting-President Pelosi" - with the Pelosi one a distant second in probability.
So even 3 or 4 Biden states missing the deadline - which is unlikely - wouldn't really hurt Biden. It would just be inconvenient, in that it's not fatal to Trump.
One last note:
The statute refers to methods or procedures for determining the outcome of a contest that a "State shall have provided." Federal court cases aren't procedures that a State provides - they don't affect the safe harbor at all.
The statute refers to methods or procedures for determining the outcome of a contest that a "State shall have provided." Federal court cases aren't procedures that a State provides - they don't affect the safe harbor at all.
Hope that helps. I'm going back to work (this was the last half of my lunch) so I probably won't be able to answer too many questions on this one.
POSTSCRIPT:
Most state elections challenge laws have - for very very good reason - strict deadlines and are designed for rapid resolution. Last-second suits aren't going to be a thing that can work.
Most state elections challenge laws have - for very very good reason - strict deadlines and are designed for rapid resolution. Last-second suits aren't going to be a thing that can work.
POST-POSTSCRIPT:
Whether or not a last-second suit interferes with 3 USC 5 is going to be up to Congress anyway, not the state or courts. And see above re: President Biden or President Pelosi choice.
Whether or not a last-second suit interferes with 3 USC 5 is going to be up to Congress anyway, not the state or courts. And see above re: President Biden or President Pelosi choice.
