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Everyone's been so focused on the prospect of massive queues of trucks (to the point of bulldozing parts of kent into lorry parks) little attention was paid to the opposite scenario: nobody comes any more. It was a bracing reality check to hear many hauliers will bypass the UK.
Why? Simple economics.
Most goods brought to the UK are carried by foreign hauliers employing foreign drivers.
The EU already has a shortage of internal haulage capacity.
Therefore if the UK route costs shoot up (customs, delays, paperwork) firms will just take jobs elsewhere.
Most goods brought to the UK are carried by foreign hauliers employing foreign drivers.
The EU already has a shortage of internal haulage capacity.
Therefore if the UK route costs shoot up (customs, delays, paperwork) firms will just take jobs elsewhere.
(This isn't an issue so much on the island of Ireland, where 99.5% of cross-border haulage is done by UK and Irish firms. But for goods flowing into GB or out of GB to the continent, it could be a big BIG problem.)
Meanwhile, we can't easily substitute UK trucks.
A) There aren't nearly enough for the volumes of goods requiring transport
B) They won't have the necessary permits (unless a deal is done negating the need for them - but then see A.)
A) There aren't nearly enough for the volumes of goods requiring transport
B) They won't have the necessary permits (unless a deal is done negating the need for them - but then see A.)
This is potentially a "worse than huge queues" scenario.
Queues can be mitigated to some extent (triage, permits, lorry parks, etc.)
But how do you mitigate undesirability? The only real defence is to put the price of contracts up, up, up - until the UK becomes desirable again.
Queues can be mitigated to some extent (triage, permits, lorry parks, etc.)
But how do you mitigate undesirability? The only real defence is to put the price of contracts up, up, up - until the UK becomes desirable again.
Here's an international freight forwarder, based in Dover, talking about the issue with James O'Brien...
And here's more confirmation that the problem is a real concern...
"Brexit latest: UK should brace itself for months of food shortages from 1 January, delivery experts say" https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-latest-uk-brace-months-food-shortages-1-january-delivery-782518
"Brexit latest: UK should brace itself for months of food shortages from 1 January, delivery experts say" https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-latest-uk-brace-months-food-shortages-1-january-delivery-782518
The whole thing is like worrying about how you're going to win a football match against a far superior team, only nobody noticed the pitch has frozen over and it's actually going to be ice hockey.
